中国のカーボンニュートラルへの相乗経路：都市代謝、生態回復、直接空気回収の多基準評価
Synergistic Pathways to Carbon Neutrality in China: Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Urban Metabolism, Ecological Restoration, and Direct Air Capture (原題)
Guze Li
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
中国の2060年カーボンニュートラル達成には排出削減と除去の両方が必要であり、本論文は都市代謝最適化、生態回復、直接空気回収（DAC）の3経路をAHPとエントロピー法で統合評価した。2030年までに都市代謝が排出削減の42-43%を占め、生態回復は低コスト（CO2トンあたり17-21ドル）、DACは2040年以降に重要性を増す。地域差が顕著で、東部は都市代謝、西部は生態回復を優先すべきと示唆。強化シナリオでは2035年までに年15-18億トンの削減が可能。
English
China's 2060 carbon neutrality requires both emission cuts and removal. This paper evaluates urban metabolism optimization, ecological restoration, and direct air capture (DAC) using AHP and entropy weighting. Urban metabolism dominates 2030 reductions (42-43%), ecological restoration is lowest cost ($17-21/tCO2), and DAC gains importance post-2040. Regional heterogeneity is pronounced: east prioritizes urban metabolism, west ecological restoration. Enhanced scenario could deliver 1.5-1.8 Gt annual CO2 reduction by 2035.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国の事例だが、日本でもカーボンニュートラル達成には除去技術と都市の効率化が重要であり、地域差を考慮した戦略立案の参考になる。SSBJ開示や移行計画策定において、複数経路の費用対効果比較は有用。
In the global GX context
This paper provides a multi-criteria framework for evaluating carbon removal and urban efficiency pathways, relevant to global decarbonization strategy. It offers empirical evidence for regionally differentiated approaches, which can inform national and corporate transition plans aligned with TCFD/ISSB expectations.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a novel integrated evaluation of urban metabolism, ecological restoration, and DAC with regional granularity.
🏢実務担当者:Offers a framework for comparing decarbonization options by cost and scalability, useful for transition planning.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the need for region-specific strategies and phased deployment of carbon removal technologies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
China's commitment to carbon neutrality by 2060 cannot be met through emission cuts alone; the residual emissions from hard-to-abate sectors must also be offset by carbon removal. Mitigation and removal, in other words, are two halves of a single strategy. To date, researchers have largely examined urban metabolism optimization, ecological restoration, and direct air capture (DAC) as separate topics, leaving their combined potential and regional variation underexplored. This paper addresses that gap by constructing an evaluation framework that couples the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with the entropy weight method. Each pathway is scored along four dimensions—carbon reduction potential, cost-effectiveness, technical maturity, and scalability—with weights derived from both expert judgment and data variability. Drawing on IPCC AR6, IEA 2024, and Chinese official statistics, we compare a baseline scenario against an enhanced scenario and disaggregate the results by eastern, central, and western China. Four findings emerge. Urban metabolism regulation dominates, accounting for 42–43% of projected 2030 emission reductions. Ecological restoration offers the lowest unit cost (USD 17–21 per ton of CO₂) and strong life-cycle net benefits. DAC remains supplementary before 2040 but gains importance thereafter as costs fall. Regional heterogeneity is pronounced: the east should prioritize urban metabolism, the center a balanced mix, and the west ecological restoration. Under the enhanced scenario, the three pathways together could deliver 1.5–1.8 Gt of annual CO₂ reduction by 2035. These results provide empirical support for a phased, regionally differentiated decarbonization strategy.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.54097/4hepmd93first seen 2026-08-29 04:39:46
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