Simulations of Optimal Biofuel Production and Land-Use Patterns under AR6 Projections and Green Finance Mechanism in Taiwan
台湾におけるAR6予測とグリーンファイナンスメカニズム下での最適なバイオ燃料生産と土地利用パターンのシミュレーション (AI 翻訳)
Kung S, Kung C, Chang M
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
台湾を対象に、AR6気候予測とグリーンボンドメカニズムがバイオ燃料生産と土地利用に与える影響を確率的動的モデルで分析。気候影響によりバイオ燃料生産量が減少する一方、グリーンボンドが生産コストを下げ、十分な発行規模（8.4～11.2億ドル）が必要であることを示した。また、非効率な排出権取引が生産者に損失をもたらす。
English
This study uses a stochastic recursive model to analyze optimal biofuel production and land-use changes under AR6 climate scenarios and a green bond mechanism in Taiwan. Results show climate impacts reduce biofuel output, but green bonds can lower costs, requiring $840–$1,120 million in issuance. Inefficient emission trading causes losses of $10.89–$23.24 million to producers.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
台湾の事例だが、日本でもバイオ燃料とグリーンファイナンスの連携は関心が高く、特にグリーンボンドの規模設定に示唆を与える。日本のグリーンボンド市場拡大において、本分析の枠組みは参考になる。
In the global GX context
This paper provides an empirical model linking green bonds to biofuel production, relevant for global green finance and energy transition policy. It highlights the importance of sufficient green bond volume and the impact of emission trading inefficiencies, offering insights for emerging green bond markets.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a quantitative model integrating climate projections, land use, and green finance for biofuel optimization.
🏢実務担当者:Green bond issuers and biofuel producers can use the volume estimates and cost reduction insights.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the need for adequate green bond market size and efficient emission trading to support biofuel development.
📄 Abstract（原文）
<title>Abstract</title> <p>The study employs a stochastic, recursive model to identify optimal biofuel production and land-use change under AR6 and green finance policies in Taiwan. The results show that (1) significant climate impacts would decrease total biofuel production from 185.7 to 149.9 million gallons and substantially change cropping patterns, but residual utilization, depending on the level of climate impacts, offers a reliable lower bound (40.77%–50.46%) of total biofuel production; (2) green bond mechanism improves biofuel production by lowering investment and operating costs, and the sufficient green bond volume should range from $840–$1,120 million to support qualified biofuel producers. The current size of the green bond market is insufficient for optimal biofuel development; (3) the inefficient emission trade system would incur a loss of $10.89–$23.24 million to biofuel producers; and (4) approximately 15,100 hectares of cropland would be set aside, and about 69,500 hectares of currently abandoned land would be converted into production.</p>
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- Research Square https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9669575/v1first seen 2026-06-16 04:29:17
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