Climate change mitigation potential of reducing forest harvest under increased risk of wildfires in Canada.
山火事リスク増加下での森林伐採削減による気候変動緩和の可能性（カナダ） (AI 翻訳)
C. Smyth, M. Fellows, Joseph Buckingham, J. Metsaranta
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、生態系炭素動態、木材製品の炭素追跡、排出集約素材代替効果を考慮し、伐採削減シナリオのGHG削減ポテンシャルを定量化。41年間で累積836 MtCO2eの純削減を見込むが、高焼失率地域では不確実性が大きく、バランスの取れた森林管理の必要性を強調。
English
This study quantifies GHG reduction potential of a harvest reduction scenario using a systems approach including ecosystem carbon, wildfire risk, wood products, and substitution impacts. Cumulative net reduction of 836 MtCO2e over 40 years, with greater uncertainty in high burn rate regions, emphasizing balanced forest management.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本でも森林炭素管理は重要だが、山火事リスクは限定的。本手法は、伐採リスク最適化の枠組みとして、日本の森林バイオマス活用政策やJ-クレジット制度への応用が期待される。
In the global GX context
Globally, this study demonstrates integrating wildfire risk into forest carbon accounting, relevant for national GHG inventories and land-sector mitigation under the Paris Agreement. It highlights trade-offs between sequestration and fire risk, informing forest climate policy.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:A system modeling approach combining carbon dynamics, wildfire risk, and substitution effects for forest mitigation assessment.
🏢実務担当者:Harvest scheduling that prioritizes high wildfire-risk stands can reduce overall emissions, useful for forest management planning.
🏛政策担当者:National climate mitigation strategies must account for regional wildfire regimes when designing harvest reduction policies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
This study quantified the greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction potential of a hypothetical harvest reduction scenario using a system approach that included ecosystem carbon dynamics with future wildfires, tracking of carbon in wood products and substitution impacts of emissions-intensive materials. A Harvest Less scenario reduced harvest volume by ∼15% and preferentially harvested stands with higher wildfire-risk while retaining lower wildfire-risk stands on the landscape. Stand selection was guided by a harvest scheduler that prioritized higher wildfire risk stands during optimization. Open-source models and publicly available datasets were used to estimate net GHG benefits relative to a forward-looking baseline. A statistical approach was used to project future area burned across distinct fire zones, enabling quantitative assessment of wildfire risk under a changing climate. The net GHG reduction associated with reduced harvest volumes varied by region and wildfire regime. Nationally, the cumulative net GHG reduction was -836 MtCO2e (80% confidence interval -820 to -854) after 40 years, with annual mitigation peaking after roughly 10 years and declining thereafter. Regions with high burn rates exhibited greater uncertainty in the climate change mitigation potential of reduced harvesting. These findings emphasize the need for a balanced forest management approach that accounts for both carbon sequestration and wildfire risk to effectively mitigate climate change.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.130435first seen 2026-07-20 05:41:00
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