Economic Impacts of an Emissions Trading Scheme Pilot in Oligopolistic Agri-Food Supply Chains: A Network Equilibrium Analysis
寡占的農産食品サプライチェーンにおける排出量取引制度パイロットの経済影響：ネットワーク均衡分析 (AI 翻訳)
Tingfeng Wu, Heyin Hou
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
排出量取引制度（ETS）パイロットが寡占的農産食品サプライチェーンに与える経済影響を、多層ネットワーク均衡モデルを用いて定量分析。中国-EUのニンニク貿易を事例に、排出枠の厳格化や取引条件が価格・利潤・排出量に与える影響を評価。適度な効率性投資は生産性向上と排出削減に寄与するが、過度な投資は逓減効果を示す。上下流の協調投資が安定性を高めることを示した。
English
This paper quantifies the economic impacts of an ETS pilot on oligopolistic agri-food supply chains using a multi-tier network equilibrium model. Using China-EU garlic trade as a case, it shows that tighter quotas and trading conditions shift production and allowance trading, affecting prices, profits, and emissions. Moderate efficiency investments improve productivity and may reduce emissions, while excessive unilateral investment shows diminishing returns. Coordinated upstream-downstream investment yields more stable outcomes.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本では2026年度に排出量取引の本格稼働が予定されており、サプライチェーン全体での炭素コスト波及の理解が急務。本モデルは農産食品分野でのETS設計評価に示唆を与え、SSBJ開示やサプライチェーン排出量管理にも応用可能。
In the global GX context
As ETS pilots expand globally, this network equilibrium approach offers a decision-relevant tool for assessing carbon pricing impacts on international agri-food trade. It complements TCFD/ISSB disclosure by quantifying how carbon costs propagate through supply chains, informing transition finance and climate risk assessments.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a rigorous variational inequality framework for modeling ETS impacts in multi-tier supply chains, useful for extending to other sectors and regions.
🏢実務担当者:Offers insights into how ETS quotas and efficiency investments affect cost structures and competitiveness, aiding supply chain carbon management and investment decisions.
🏛政策担当者:Demonstrates how ETS pilot design parameters (quota stringency, trading conditions) influence market outcomes and emissions, informing policy calibration.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) pilot programs impose binding quota constraints and enable allowance trading, reshaping cost structures and strategic interactions in oligopolistic agri-food supply chains. This paper quantifies the resulting economic impacts, including equilibrium prices, profits, and trade flows, by developing a multi-tier network equilibrium model that links upstream suppliers, downstream manufacturers, domestic and international demand markets, and a carbon trading center under an Emissions Trading Scheme pilot setting. Suppliers invest in low-carbon technologies, while manufacturers undertake labor-efficiency investments that affect unit costs and throughput, with proximity-based spillovers captured via a grid-distance mechanism. The equilibrium conditions are formulated as a variational inequality framework and computed numerically, enabling systematic comparative statics analysis under alternative quota stringency and trading conditions. Using China-EU garlic trade as an illustrative case, the numerical analysis indicates that tighter policy constraints and trading conditions shift production and allowance-trading patterns, with corresponding changes in prices, profits, and emissions across tiers. It also shows that moderate efficiency investment can improve productivity and may reduce aggregate emissions, whereas very high unilateral investment tends to exhibit diminishing returns and can be associated with non-smooth adjustments in network allocations. Finally, coordinated upstream-downstream investment is generally associated with more stable outcomes than isolated initiatives. The framework offers a decision-relevant tool for evaluating Emissions Trading Scheme pilot designs in regulated international agri-food trade networks.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.31181/ijes1512026280first seen 2026-05-05 22:41:04 · last seen 2026-08-02 06:13:17
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