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中国における石炭ガンジュ由来建材利用の可能性評価：多次元補正を伴うGCAMに基づいて

Evaluating Potentials of Coal-gangue-derived Building Materials Utilization in China: based on GCAM with Multi-dimensional Corrections (原題)

Hu G, Wang T, Gu Y, Wu Y

Research Squareプレプリント2026-08-19#エネルギー転換Origin: CN対象セクター: construction
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-10253365/v1
原典: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-10253365/v1

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

中国の石炭ガンジュ年間7.5億トン発生に対し、建材利用の容量限界をGCAMモデルで定量評価。建材利用は構造的に年間1億トンに制限され、多様な用途への転換が有効。炭素価格の効果は限定的で、補助金は非効率。地域差を考慮した多角化戦略が必要。

English

This study quantifies the capacity limits of coal gangue utilization in China using GCAM, finding that building material use is capped at 100 Mt/yr. Diversifying into power generation, alumina extraction, and backfill recovers significant tonnage. Carbon pricing adds only 1.7 pp utilization, while subsidies are costly, suggesting a province-differentiated strategy.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本の廃棄物・副産物利用政策や炭素価格設計に示唆。特に石炭火力の副産物であるフライアッシュ等の有効活用や、地域別の資源循環戦略の参考になる。

In the global GX context

This provides quantitative evidence on the limits of single-stream waste utilization and the cost-effectiveness of policy instruments, relevant for global waste-to-resource transitions and carbon pricing debates.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:GCAMモデルの応用と廃棄物利用の容量限界評価手法を参考に。

🏢実務担当者:建材業界や廃棄物処理企業は、多角化戦略の必要性を理解。

🏛政策担当者:炭素価格と補助金の効果比較、地域別政策設計の重要性。

📄 Abstract（原文）

<title>Abstract</title> <p>China generates 750–800 Mt of coal gangue annually, with cumulative stockpiles exceeding 6–7 billion tonnes. Building material production has long been regarded as the prevailing disposal strategy, yet its capacity limits has rarely been systematically quantified. Based on GCAM 8.2, we developed a four-layer analytical framework that incorporates quality-graded allocation, provincial spatial matching, expanded environmental accounting, and technology learning, and designed three pathway and three scenarios to analyze the capacity limits of gangue utilization. It is revealed that building material utilization is structurally capped at 100 Mt/yr. Comprehensive environmental accounting yields net CO₂ reduction 19.8% below displacement-only estimation. Pathway redirection recovers 60.3 Mt of otherwise unrealizable tonnage to power generation (+ 20.1%), alumina extraction (+ 19.8%), and mine backfill, with cumulative gross redirection across iterations reaching 124.3% of the initial spatial loss. The results are verified by CGE and MESSAGEix, which bound utilization at 72.0–75.0% by 2050. Furthermore, we conducted an extended scenario to testify the technology improvement and policy intervention on gangue utilization. Carbon pricing adds only 1.7 pp of utilization, while subsidies cost over 7100 CNY tCO₂⁻¹. These findings establish that a province-differentiated diversified matrix must replace the building-material-first strategy.</p>

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