Estimating the extent to which green swan events disrupt housing markets: Evidence from China
グリーンスワンイベントが住宅市場に与える影響の推定：中国からのエビデンス (AI 翻訳)
I-Hsueh Tsai, Che‐Chun Lin
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
中国4都市の炭素排出権取引パイロットサイトの価格が住宅価格に与える影響を分析。炭素価格の変動が住宅市場に「グリーンスワン」効果をもたらす可能性を示し、リスク波及効果を検証。投資家や政策当局への示唆を含む。
English
This study examines how carbon prices in four Chinese pilot trading sites affect housing prices, finding that carbon price shocks can spill over to real estate markets, creating potential 'green swan' risks. It uses simulations to assess extreme risk and provides implications for investors and policymakers.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国の炭素市場と不動産市場の連関を示す研究。日本のカーボンプライシング導入検討や不動産市場への影響評価に参考となる可能性があるが、直接的な政策連動は弱い。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to the global literature on carbon pricing spillover effects, particularly on real estate. It highlights the need for policymakers to consider cross-market risks from carbon markets, relevant for jurisdictions like the EU and China advancing carbon pricing.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Methodology for assessing carbon price spillover to housing markets; useful for climate risk modeling.
🏢実務担当者:Real estate investors and carbon market participants can use findings to hedge against green swan risks.
🏛政策担当者:Reinforces the importance of evaluating carbon pricing impacts on asset markets, including housing.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Shocks from climate change and transitioning to a low-carbon economy can have a green swan effect on economies. To assess the extent to which green swan events may disrupt housing markets in the future, this study examines how the prices of carbon trading pilot sites in four Chinese cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Chongqing) affect housing prices in these cities and whether the green swan effect increases with a rise in policy risks. This paper first performs simulations to determine the extreme risk of housing returns (value at risk) and whether this risk is affected by the exogenous shock of carbon returns. Then, this study examines the correlation between carbon prices and housing prices from the perspectives of returns and volatility. In terms of risk transmission effects, all four real estate markets are affected by carbon price risk spillovers. It verifies that China’s real estate market may be negatively impacted by “green swans” when carbon prices experience significant fluctuations. The findings provide investors with a means to evaluate whether the housing market is susceptible to a green swan effect, and also underscore the need for authorities to evaluate the impact of carbon reduction policies on the housing market.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2026.26143first seen 2026-05-26 04:36:25 · last seen 2026-05-27 04:32:14
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