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波及なき抑制？広東省における炭素取引パイロットとプラットフォーム都市がグリーン投資に与える相対的効果

Suppression Without Spillovers? The Relative Effects of Carbon Trading Pilots and Platform-Host Cities on Green Investment in Guangdong (原題)

Biying Tang

Advances in Economics Management and Political Sciences📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-10-27#炭素価格Origin: CN対象セクター: cross_sector
DOI: 10.54254/2754-1169/2026.gt38157
原典: https://doi.org/10.54254/2754-1169/2026.gt38157
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🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

広東省の炭素取引パイロットを準自然実験とし、広州・深圳の上場企業の環境投資が非プラットフォーム都市より有意に抑制されることを多期間DIDで示す。効果は「即時ショック—一時的反発—中長期での再抑制」という動態をとる。3種の空間重み行列で有意なスピルオーバーは検出されず、炭素市場がESGの「言動乖離」を誘発しうると示唆する。

English

Treating Guangdong's carbon trading pilot as a quasi-natural experiment, this study uses multi-period DID and SLX models on city-aggregated listed-firm environmental investment (2010–2020). Environmental investment in Guangzhou and Shenzhen is significantly suppressed relative to non-platform cities (DID = -1.618), with an immediate-shock, brief-rebound, renewed-negative dynamic. No significant spatial spillover is detected across three weight matrices, suggesting carbon markets may induce ESG word–deed decoupling.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

中国の炭素市場が企業の実質的な環境投資を抑制しうるという知見は、日本でも導入が進むGX経済移行債やカーボンプライシング設計、SSBJ開示における「言動乖離」監視の重要性を示唆する。統合報告書での環境投資の質的検証にも示唆を与える。

In the global GX context

Adds rare quasi-experimental evidence that carbon pricing can suppress real environmental capex even as ESG scores improve, relevant to ISSB/CSRD disclosure quality debates and greenwashing scrutiny. The null spillover result cautions against assuming carbon markets diffuse green investment geographically.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:炭素市場の実投資効果とESGスコア改善の乖離を測る識別戦略と空間計量の応用例として有用。

🏢実務担当者:開示上のESG評価と実投資の整合性を問われるリスクを認識し、環境投資の説明責任強化に活用できる。

🏛政策担当者:カーボンプライシング設計時に、投資抑制や言動乖離を緩和する補完策の必要性を検討する材料になる。

📄 Abstract（原文）

Against the backdrop of climate governance, carbon emissions trading markets have become an important market-based instrument for China to achieve its "dual carbon" goals, yet the direction of their impact on green investment remains contested, and direct evidence on spatial spillovers is lacking. Using city- aggregated data on listed companies' environmental investment in 12 prefecture-level cities in Guangdong Province from 2010 to 2020, this paper treats the Guangdong carbon trading pilot as a quasi- natural experiment with Guangzhou and Shenzhen as the treated group, and identifies effects using two- way fixed-effects multi-period DID and SLX models. We find that, relative to non-platform cities within the province, listed companies' environmental investment in Guangzhou and Shenzhen is significantly suppressed (did = -1.618, bootstrap p < 0.001); dynamically, the effect exhibits a pattern of "immediate shock — brief rebound — renewed negative in the medium-to-long run (marginally significant)." Across all three spatial weight matrices, no significant spatial spillover is detected, although this null result cannot rule out the existence of spillovers. Juxtaposed with existing evidence that carbon markets improve corporate ESG performance, our findings suggest that the policy may induce an ESG "word– deed decoupling." Owing to the province-wide coverage of the provincial carbon market and to disclosure constraints, the evidence in this paper is suggestive at the scale of the Pearl River Delta city cluster.

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