メタン熱分解による低炭素水素製造：不確実性下の技術優先順位付け、ライフサイクル評価、サウジアラビアの輸出競争力

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🔬研究者:Provides an integrated TEA-LCA framework with uncertainty analysis for hydrogen production pathways, useful for comparative technology assessment.

🏢実務担当者:Offers cost benchmarks and carbon intensity data for methane pyrolysis, informing investment decisions in hydrogen production and carbon co-product valorization.

🏛政策担当者:Highlights the potential of methane pyrolysis to meet low-carbon hydrogen standards, supporting policy development for hydrogen trade and carbon pricing.

Hydrogen is positioned as an energy carrier and industrial feedstock for decarbonizing sectors that are difficult to electrify. However, its climate and economic value depend on production pathway, resource use, and deployment conditions. This thesis evaluates methane pyrolysis as a low-carbon pathway that converts natural gas into hydrogen and solid carbon, with relevance to natural-gas-rich economies such as Saudi Arabia. It develops an integrated assessment framework linking scientific performance with industrial and policy decision-making through techno-economic analysis (TEA), life cycle assessment (LCA), uncertainty analysis, and export-competitiveness evaluation. The thesis first reviews methane pyrolysis technologies, including solid-catalyst systems, molten-media reactors, carbon product formation, commercialization activity, and deployment barriers. It shows that laboratory indicators such as methane conversion and hydrogen selectivity must be complemented by cost, emissions, scalability, carbon handling, and market relevance. Building on this review, an experiment-anchored TEA compares fluidized-bed reactor (FBR), molten-metal reactor (MMR), and molten-salt reactor (MSR) pathways at 3,288 t H2 day−1 under unified system boundaries. Monte Carlo simulation and global sensitivity analysis quantify uncertainty and cost drivers. Without carbon revenue, median levelized costs of hydrogen are 2.46, 2.67, and 3.78 USD kg−1 H2 for FBR, MSR, and MMR, respectively. Market-constrained graphite valorization reduces these values to 0.79, 0.98, and 2.08 USD kg−1 H2, identifying FBR as a robust near-term candidate. The thesis then evaluates FBR methane pyrolysis in Saudi Arabia using Yanbu as the reference export location. A hybrid concentrating solar power–photovoltaic system is modeled for continuous process demand, and well-to-gate LCA estimates life cycle greenhouse gas intensity. The pathway achieves a mean GHG intensity of 3.12 kg CO2-eq kg−1 H2, below the EU benchmark and Japan’s low-carbon hydrogen standard. At electricity costs of $105, $80, and $45 MWh−1, LCOH reaches $1.90, $1.58, and $1.14 kg−1 H2, respectively, before carbon revenue or pricing. At a graphite price of $359 t−1, solid carbon revenue closes the cost gap against Japan/East Asia and European natural gas benchmarks without carbon pricing. Overall, this thesis frames methane pyrolysis as an integrated energy-system and policy problem, providing decision-relevant evidence on technology prioritization, lifecycle emissions, carbon co-product constraints, and Saudi export competitiveness.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.25781/kaust-v895kfirst seen 2026-08-29 04:41:33