異質な脱炭素化：技術別再生可能エネルギーショックと世界経済における非対称な排出応答
Heterogeneous Decarbonization: Technology-Specific Renewable Shocks and Asymmetric Emissions Responses Across the Global Economy (原題)
Wasiu Akintunde
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
太陽光・風力など技術別の再エネ出力変化が排出・経済に与える影響を、GTAP-E-Powerモデルと56カ国パネルで分析。米国では太陽光ショックで排出が39%増える一方、インドでは32%減と非対称な結果を示す。貿易を通じた波及と厚生効果の異質性を明らかにし、平均的な再エネ・排出関係が技術別には一様でないことを示す。
English
Using a technology-disaggregated GTAP-E-Power model and a 56-country panel (2000–2023), the paper shows that technology-specific renewable output shocks produce asymmetric emissions outcomes: solar shocks raise US production emissions by 39% but cut India's by 32%. Trade transmits these adjustments via prices and exports, generating heterogeneous welfare effects. The average renewable–emissions relationship masks substantial technology- and region-specific variation.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のGX政策・SSBJ開示において、再エネ導入の排出削減効果を技術別・地域別に評価する必要性を示唆。電源構成や産業構造の違いを踏まえた政策設計・トランジション評価に資する。
In the global GX context
Challenges the assumption behind global decarbonization pathways and transition finance that renewable deployment uniformly reduces emissions; relevant to ISSB/TCFD scenario analysis and country-level transition planning where technology mix and trade exposure shape outcomes.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:技術別・地域別の再エネショックが排出に与える非対称効果を定量化する枠組みを提供する。
🏢実務担当者:再エネ調達や脱炭素目標の効果が地域・技術で異なることを踏まえ、シナリオ分析の精緻化に活用できる。
🏛政策担当者:再エネ政策の排出削減効果を技術別・産業構造別に評価し、貿易波及も考慮した政策設計が求められる。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract Why do technology-specific changes in renewable output produce different emissions and economic outcomes across economies? This paper examines this question using a technology-disaggregated GTAP-E-Power model covering eight regions and twenty-two sectors, complemented by panel evidence from 56 countries over 2000–2023 and machine-learning robustness analysis. The structural experiments impose region-specific counterfactual output changes separately for solarP, windBL, and otherBL zero-emission generation across all eight regions. Under the SolarP experiment, production-based emissions associated with the modeled activity increase by $$39.39\%$$ in the United States but decline by $$32.04\%$$ in India, reflecting input and cross-technology reallocation toward emissions-generating production in the United States, in contrast to broader production contraction in India. Trade further transmits these adjustments through relative prices and export flows, generating heterogeneous welfare effects. Complementing these structural results, panel estimates associate a $$1\%$$ increase in renewable energy consumption with an average $$0.30\%$$ reduction in emissions, while income-group estimates reveal substantial heterogeneity. Taken together, the results show that the average negative renewable–emissions relationship does not imply uniform technology-specific outcomes. Regional production, substitution, and trade structures determine how renewable-output changes are transmitted into emissions and welfare.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- crossref https://doi.org/10.1007/s10018-026-00485-4first seen 2026-11-01 05:58:14 · last seen 2026-11-06 06:02:38
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