Simulating Strategic Bidding and Capacity Withholding in the Italian Day-Ahead Electricity Market: Insights from 2023-2024
2023-2024年のイタリア日前電力市場における戦略的入札と容量保留のシミュレーション：洞察 (AI 翻訳)
Francesca Curinga, Lorenzo Vitulano, A. Zani
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、2023-2024年のイタリア日前電力市場における代替的な入札行動が価格形成に与える影響を評価するためのモデルフレームワークを提示する。分析は規制当局の事実調査を支援するために実施され、複合サイクルガスタービン（CCGT）と非ディスパッチ可能な再生可能発電機の戦略的入札に焦点を当てる。歴史的市場データを用いて反実仮想シナリオを構築し、モデルが市場条件を正確に再現した時間帯について結果を比較した。その結果、CCGTと再生可能エネルギーの入札戦略がともに価格上昇圧力をもたらしたことが示唆された。
English
This paper presents a modeling framework to assess the impact of alternative bidding behaviors on price formation in the Italian Day-Ahead Market (2023-2024), supporting a regulatory investigation. It focuses on strategic bidding by combined-cycle gas turbines and non-dispatchable renewables, constructing counterfactual scenarios using historical data. Results suggest that both CCGT and renewable bidding strategies exerted upward pressure on prices, with heterogeneous effects across technologies and years.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
本論文は、日本の電力市場設計や規制当局にとっても示唆に富む。再生可能エネルギーの統合が進む中、入札戦略が市場価格に与える影響を定量的に分析する手法は、日本の容量市場や市場支配力監視に応用可能である。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to global discussions on electricity market design in the context of decarbonization. Its methodology for simulating alternative bidding strategies and assessing price impacts is relevant for regulators and market operators worldwide, particularly in markets with increasing renewable penetration and gas-fired generation.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a robust methodology for simulating counterfactual bidding scenarios and evaluating their impact on market-clearing prices, useful for energy market research.
🏢実務担当者:Offers insights into how different bidding strategies by gas and renewable generators can affect market outcomes, valuable for trading and risk management.
🏛政策担当者:Supports regulatory oversight by quantifying the potential price effects of strategic bidding, informing market monitoring and design improvements.
📄 Abstract（原文）
This paper presents a modelling framework to assess the potential impact of alternative bidding behaviours on price formation in the Italian Day-Ahead Market (MGP) over the period 2023-2024. The analysis was conducted to support the fact-finding investigation mandated by the national energy regulator, with a focus on potential economic withholding and bidding strategies of combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) and non-dispatchable renewable generators. Historical market data were processed using DAMOCLE, a market simulation tool developed by RSE, to construct and evaluate counterfactual scenarios based on cost-reflective CCGT bidding and pricetaking behaviour of wind and solar units. For each scenario, hourly market-clearing outcomes were recomputed and compared with historical results for the subset of hours in which the model accurately replicated observed market conditions. The results suggest that both CCGT and renewable bidding strategies exerted upward pressure on prices, with heterogeneous effects across technologies, zones, and years.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.1109/eem68581.2026.11589606first seen 2026-07-24 06:43:41
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