Study on the phase-out Pathway of Coal-Fired Power Units in China Based on Survival analysis and Demand Constraints
生存分析と需要制約に基づく中国石炭火力発電ユニットの段階的廃止経路に関する研究 (AI 翻訳)
Wang Jiefang, Aiping Li
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、中国の石炭火力発電ユニットの2025年から2060年までの段階的廃止経路を、生存分析と需要シナリオを用いてシミュレーションした。時間的には「緩やかな開始・加速的な削減・最終的なピーク」の3段階を経ることが示され、地域によって廃止リズムが大きく異なる。平均廃止年齢は37～39年で、13%～16%のユニットが早期廃止され資産座礁リスクがある。政策立案者に対し、段階別・地域別の廃止傾向を予測し、エネルギー安全保障と資産座礁防止のバランスを取るための差別化政策を提供する。
English
This study simulates the phase-out pathways of China's coal-fired power units from 2025 to 2060 using survival analysis and demand scenarios. It reveals a three-stage temporal pattern (gentle start, accelerated reduction, final peak) and significant regional variation. Under three scenarios, the average retirement age is 37-39 years, with 13%-16% of units retired prematurely, posing asset stranding risk. The framework provides a quantitative basis for policymakers to anticipate phase-out trends and design differentiated policies balancing energy security and asset stranding prevention.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国の石炭火力廃止の知見は、日本が今後のエネルギー転換を進める上で示唆に富む。特に資産座礁リスクの定量化は、日本でも石炭火力の段階的廃止を検討する際に参考となる。
In the global GX context
China's coal phase-out is a global climate priority. This study offers a quantitative framework that combines survival analysis with demand constraints, applicable to other countries planning coal phase-out. It highlights the risk of asset stranding and the need for differentiated regional policies, informing global energy transition strategies.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:The survival analysis framework integrating historical retirement patterns with demand scenarios offers a novel methodology for studying energy infrastructure phase-out.
🏢実務担当者:Empty
🏛政策担当者:The three-stage phase-out pattern and regional typology provide a quantitative basis for designing transition policies that balance energy security and avoid asset stranding.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract Under China’s dual carbon goals, the phase-out of coal-fired power units is imperative for the energy system transition. This study simulates the phase-out pathways of China's coal-fired power units from 2025 to 2060, analyzing the associated risks and spatiotemporal dynamics.Using survival analysis, we constructed a simulation framework that integrates historical empirical patterns with future demand scenarios to quantify phase-out drivers and assess relative risks.Temporally, the phase-out follows a three-stage pathway: gentle initiation, accelerated reduction, and final peaking.Spatially, the phase-out rhythm varies significantly across regions, falling into three types: “Early-Advancing and Later-Lagging” “Slow Start and Late-Surge” and “Mid-Stage Sprinting” Under three scenarios, the average phase-out age ranges from 37 to 39 years, with 13%–16% of units retired prematurely, risking asset stranding. Mechanisms like capacity pricing can alter these pathways by influencing the economic viability and thus the retirement schedule of units.It provides a quantitative basis for policymakers to anticipate phase-out trends across stages and regions and to formulate differentiated policies that balance energy security with the prevention of asset stranding.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ae7e56first seen 2026-06-18 05:53:36
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