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炭素価格の歪みとエネルギー資源の誤配分：中国排出量取引制度からの証拠

Carbon price distortion and energy resource misallocation: evidence from China’s emissions trading scheme (原題)

Liangpeng Wu, Jingrui Zhang, Youan Ke, Xiaoyong Zhou

Management System Engineering📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-10-23#炭素価格Origin: CN対象セクター: power
DOI: 10.1007/s44176-026-00079-0
原典: https://doi.org/10.1007/s44176-026-00079-0

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

中国30省の2000〜2022年パネルデータを用い、炭素価格歪みがエネルギー資源誤配分に与える影響をDIDで分析。ETS導入はパイロット地域でエネルギー誤配分をむしろ悪化させ、炭素価格が適正水準から乖離するほど悪化が増幅されることを示す。メカニズムはエネルギー投入の制約とグリーンイノベーションの抑制。

English

Using 2000–2022 panel data for 30 Chinese provinces and a difference-in-differences design, the study measures carbon price distortion via a generalized cost function with factor-price distortions and emission constraints. It finds ETS pilots aggravated energy misallocation, and that larger deviations of carbon prices from reasonable levels amplified this deterioration, mainly through constrained energy input and suppressed green innovation.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本ではGX-ETSや炭素賦課金の設計議論が進む中、価格シグナルの歪みが資源配分を損なうリスクを示す示唆として、制度設計・価格形成の議論に資する。

In the global GX context

As global carbon markets scale under Article 6 and compliance schemes, this paper warns that poorly designed allowance allocation and distorted price signals can undermine the allocative function central to carbon pricing and transition finance credibility.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:炭素価格歪みの測定手法とETSの資源配分効果に関する因果推論の枠組みを参考にできる。

🏢実務担当者:炭素価格シグナルの不確実性が調達・投資判断に与える影響を理解する材料になる。

🏛政策担当者:ETSの割当配分と価格形成設計の改善が資源配分効率に直結する点を政策設計に反映すべき。

📄 Abstract（原文）

Abstract The Coase Theorem suggests that carbon markets should primarily perform two functions: price discovery and resource allocation. However, carbon price distortions may weaken both functions, raising concerns over resource misallocation and a possible “distortion superposition” effect. This study constructs a generalized cost function incorporating factor price distortions and carbon emission constraints to measure the degree of carbon price distortion. Using panel data for 30 Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2022 and a difference-in-differences approach, we examine how carbon price distortion affects energy resource misallocation in emissions trading scheme (ETS) pilot regions. The results show that energy misallocation is widespread across provinces and exhibits substantial regional heterogeneity. More importantly, the implementation of the ETS significantly aggravates energy misallocation in pilot areas, indicating that the policy, at its current stage, has not effectively directed energy resources toward high-efficiency and low-carbon sectors. Carbon price distortion further amplifies this adverse effect: the larger the deviation of carbon prices from their reasonable level, the stronger the ETS-induced deterioration in energy allocation. Mechanism analysis shows that carbon price distortion exacerbates energy misallocation mainly by constraining energy input and inhibiting green innovation. These findings provide empirical support for improving allowance allocation, refining carbon price formation, thereby contributing to the optimization of energy resource allocation and the achievement of China’s “dual-carbon” goals.

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