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シナリオベースの意思決定支援ツールによる自治体脱炭素計画の高度化

Advancing municipal decarbonization planning through a scenario-based decision support tool (原題)

Tsuyoshi Ueno

eceee Summer Study proceedings📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-08-31#政策Origin: JP対象セクター: cross_sector
DOI: 10.66506/essp.55
原典: https://doi.org/10.66506/essp.55

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本研究は、専門知識のない自治体職員でもエネルギー消費の現状把握からCN施策の効果推計までを一貫して行えるWebベースのツールを実装した。全国の電力統計・国勢調査・人口推計と地域エネルギー需要シミュレーションモデルを統合し、任意の自治体についてスライド形式の資料を出力する。国内3自治体の住宅部門を対象に、2050年までの世帯数変化を考慮したBAUとCN推進シナリオを比較した結果、CN推進シナリオのCO2排出量はBAUの約56〜75%となり、電化とPV導入の効果が特に大きいことが示された。

English

This study implements a web-based decision-support tool that lets municipal staff without energy expertise assess local energy consumption and estimate decarbonization measure effects. It integrates national electricity statistics, census data, demographic projections, and a regional energy demand simulation model to generate slide-format outputs for any Japanese municipality. For three municipalities, a CN promotion scenario (heating/hot-water electrification, PV expansion, insulation, efficient appliances) yielded 2050 residential CO2 emissions at roughly 56-75% of BAU, with electrification and PV showing the largest effects.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

自治体の脱炭素計画策定を支援する実装ツールであり、地域脱炭素政策や実行計画の策定・評価に直結する。SSBJや有報でのScope 3開示とは直接の接点は薄いが、自治体のCN施策が企業の立地・調達・電力調達環境に影響しうる点で日本企業のGX実務にも間接的に関わる。

In the global GX context

This contributes to the global literature on subnational climate planning tools, complementing top-down national decarbonization pathways with municipality-level scenario analysis. While not directly tied to TCFD/ISSB disclosure frameworks, it supports the local policy infrastructure that underpins corporate transition planning and location-based emissions accounting.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:地域エネルギー需要モデルとシナリオ分析を統合した自治体支援ツールの設計・実装事例として参考になる。

🏢実務担当者:自治体のCN施策動向を把握し、立地・電力調達・サプライチェーン戦略の検討に活用できる。

🏛政策担当者:専門人材が限られる自治体でも脱炭素計画の定量評価が可能になる点は、地域政策の標準化に示唆を与える。

📄 Abstract（原文）

Extended abstract 5-053-26 Promoting carbon neutrality (CN) in the residential and commercial sectors requires local governments to play an important role; however, it is not easy for each municipality to independently grasp the current state of energy consumption or to formulate and evaluate the effects of CN promotion measures. There has been no framework that enables municipal staff, even without specialised knowledge in the energy field, to consistently and simply conduct analyses ranging from understanding current energy consumption to estimating the effects of various CN promotion measures. In our previous study, we therefore proposed the concept of a tool that enables municipalities to easily grasp their current energy consumption and estimate the effects of CN promotion measures. In this study, based on the above concept, we implemented a web-based software tool that operates in a web browser and outputs slide-format materials for any municipality in Japan. The tool integrates national electricity statistics, census data, and demographic projections with a regional energy demand simulation model. It presents both the current status of CO2 emissions derived from energy use in the selected municipality and projected future CO2 emissions based on various scenarios. The generated slides sequentially explain baseline demand, modelling assumptions, and scenario results. Using this tool, we estimated the CO2 reduction effects of adopting CN promotion measures in the residential sector for three municipalities in Japan. In the scenario analysis, changes in the number of households up to 2050 were taken into account, and two scenarios were assumed for residential CO2 emissions: a Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario and a CN promotion scenario involving the active implementation of CN promotion measures. The CN promotion scenario included electrification of heating and hot water supply, expansion of photovoltaic (PV) systems, improvements in insulation performance, and appliance efficiency enhancement. By 2050, CO2 emissions under the CN promotion scenario were approximately 56–75% of those under the BAU scenario. Among the individual measures, electrification and photovoltaic (PV) deployment had particularly large effects, and this tendency was common to all three municipalities. Read the full abstract. Download presentation.

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