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Evaluation of Coal-Fired Power Plant Emission Reduction in Indonesia in Line with the Indonesian Government's Roadmap Towards Net Zero Emissions 2060

インドネシアの石炭火力発電所排出削減評価：政府の2060年ネットゼロエミッション達成ロードマップに沿って (AI 翻訳)

Bayu Prabowo, Rinaldy Dalimi

Asian Journal of Engineering Social and Health📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-04-16#エネルギー転換
DOI: 10.46799/ajesh.v5i4.762
原典: https://doi.org/10.46799/ajesh.v5i4.762
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🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

インドネシアが2060年までのネットゼロ達成を目指す中、電力セクターが主要排出源である石炭火力発電所（CFPP）の排出経路を評価。Global Energy Monitorのデータを用い、基準シナリオでは2026～2045年の年平均排出量は394.607 MtCO2、累積排出量は7.892 GtCO2に達する。上位20基のユニットが総排出量の24.9%を占め、炭素ロックインが顕著。政府のロードマップは定量的削減目標を欠き、整合性の検証が困難であると指摘。

English

This study evaluates the emission trajectory of Indonesian coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) towards the 2060 net-zero target. Using unit-level data from Global Energy Monitor, baseline projections show average annual emissions of 394.607 MtCO2 from 2026-2045 and cumulative emissions of 7.892 GtCO2 by 2045. The top 20 units contribute 24.9% of emissions, indicating carbon lock-in. The government's roadmap lacks quantified emission reduction targets, hindering verification of alignment with decarbonization pathways.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

本論文はインドネシアの事例分析だが、石炭火力のフェーズアウトと定量的目標設定の重要性を明示しており、日本のエネルギー政策やGX戦略（石炭火力の扱い）にも示唆を与える。特に、ロードマップに排出削減の数値目標を組み込む必要性を強調している点は、日本の有報・統合報告書における気候関連開示の質的向上にも関連する。

In the global GX context

This paper provides a quantitative assessment of coal phase-out in Indonesia, highlighting the gap between national roadmaps and measurable emission reductions. Globally, it underscores the need for explicit, unit-level emission targets in energy transition plans, relevant to TCFD/ISSB-aligned disclosure and transition finance frameworks. The methodology using publicly available data (GEM) offers a replicable approach for monitoring national decarbonization progress.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides a replicable method for assessing coal plant emission trajectories using unit-level operational data and highlights carbon lock-in dynamics.

🏢実務担当者:Demonstrates the importance of quantified emission reduction targets for corporate transition planning and investor communication.

🏛政策担当者:Directly critiques the lack of quantified targets in Indonesia's roadmap, offering evidence for setting measurable milestones for coal phase-out.

📄 Abstract（原文）

Indonesia aims to achieve Net Zero Emissions (NZE) by 2060, with the electricity sector as the primary contributor to emissions due to the dominance of coal-fired power plants (CFPPs). This study evaluates the emissions trajectory of Indonesian CFPPs and the alignment of their implementation with the national energy transition roadmap through 2045. The analysis was conducted using unit-level operational data from Global Energy Monitor (GEM) covering 318 CFPP units (71.63 GW) that are operational, permitted, announced, or under construction. Annual and cumulative emissions calculations were based on the technical characteristics of each unit, including capacity, commercial operation date (COD), and combustion technology. The results show that, under a baseline scenario without accelerated retirement, average annual emissions will reach 394.607 MtCO? during the period 2026–2045, with total cumulative emissions of 7.892 GtCO? by 2045. The findings also indicate a concentrated distribution of emissions, with the 20 highest-emitting units contributing 24.9% of total annual emissions, suggesting carbon lock-in in a small number of large-capacity power plants. Although the government’s roadmap establishes milestones for the phase-out of CFPPs in 2031, 2037, and before 2055, it does not include quantified emission reduction targets or specify which units will be retired; therefore, consistency with the decarbonization pathway cannot yet be verified quantitatively. These findings indicate that, without explicit and measurable emissions-based interventions, the operational structure of coal-fired power plants through 2045 will not automatically align with the decarbonization trajectory toward NZE 2060.

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