Expert-Based Risk Mapping for Low-Carbon Hydrogen Production Under Geopolitical Constraints: A Case Study of Russia
地政学的制約下での低炭素水素生産のための専門家ベースのリスクマッピング：ロシアのケーススタディ (AI 翻訳)
Svetlana Revinova, Konstantin Gomonov, Svetlana Ratner, Artem Shaposhnikov
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、低炭素水素生産のための構造化された専門家ベースのリスクマッピングフレームワークを開発し、ロシアに適用した。21のリスク要因を同定し、専門家評価に基づく確率・影響分析により、資金調達制約、電解槽部品の輸入依存、輸出インフラ不足が最重要リスクと特定された。経済・財務リスクがシステム全体に最大の影響を与えることが示された。
English
This study develops a structured expert-based risk mapping framework for low-carbon hydrogen production, applied to Russia. 21 risk factors are identified and prioritized using probability-impact scoring (ISO 31000). Critical risks include high cost of capital, import dependence for electrolyzers, and insufficient export infrastructure. Economic and financial risks emerge as the primary accumulators of systemic influence.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本は水素戦略を推進しているが、地政学的リスクや資金調達の観点は非西洋資源国に焦点。本フレームワークは日本が水素輸入を検討する際の供給国リスク評価に応用可能。
In the global GX context
This paper provides a transferable risk mapping framework for hydrogen projects in geopolitically constrained economies, filling a gap in non-Western contexts. It offers insights for global hydrogen value chain resilience, particularly relevant as countries diversify supply sources.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Low-carbon hydrogen risk assessment methodology with expert elicitation and interdependency matrix.
🏢実務担当者:Framework can be adapted by project developers to identify and prioritize risks in resource-rich but capital-constrained regions.
🏛政策担当者:Findings highlight need for international financing mechanisms and technology de-risking for hydrogen production in non-Western economies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
The transition to low-carbon hydrogen is recognized as a priority decarbonization pathway, yet the risk profiles of hydrogen projects remain poorly characterized for non-Western, resource-rich, and geopolitically constrained economies. This study develops and applies a structured expert-based risk mapping framework for low-carbon hydrogen production in Russia. The framework integrates three procedural steps: (1) identification and classification of 21 risk factors across seven thematic groups based on systematic literature analysis; (2) construction of a directed interdependency matrix (7 × 7, ordinal scale 0–2) via structured expert elicitation (n = 10, February 2026); and (3) probability–impact prioritization using the P × S scoring heuristic (both axes on a 1–5 scale, per ISO 31000:2018). Results reveal three critical risk factors (P × S Score ≥ 20): high cost of capital and restricted access to external financing (Score = 24, P = 5, S = 5), dependence on imported electrolyzer components (Score = 20, P = 4, S = 4), and insufficient export infrastructure (Score = 20, P = 5, S = 4). The interdependency matrix identifies economic and financial risks as the primary “accumulator” of systemic influence, receiving maximum incoming impact from all other six groups. Regulatory risks occupy a medium position but exert disproportionate cascading effects on technology choice and project economics. The framework is explicitly designed for transferability to other resource-abundant, capital-constrained economies (Kazakhstan, Iran, Algeria), with structural adaptation conditions specified. Findings are relevant for policymakers, investors, and multilateral stakeholders shaping hydrogen value chains in non-Western contexts.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrogen7020071first seen 2026-05-27 04:47:26
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gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。