Club convergence in cereal exports: Is climate change an important dynamic?
穀物輸出におけるクラブ収束：気候変動は重要な要因か？ (AI 翻訳)
Fatih Kaplan, Ahmet Koluman, Ali Rıza Aktaş
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
この研究は、2000年から2022年までの95か国の輸出データを用いて、穀物輸出におけるクラブ収束を分析し、気候変動が輸出クラブの形成に与える影響を順序ロジットモデルで評価。降水量と炭素排出量が高い輸出クラブに属する確率を高めることを示した。
English
This study analyzes club convergence in cereal exports using data from 95 countries (2000-2022) and an ordered logit model to assess climate change impacts. Findings show that precipitation and carbon emissions significantly increase the likelihood of belonging to high-export clubs.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本は穀物輸入依存度が高く、気候変動による国際穀物貿易パターンの変化は食料安全保障や調達リスクに直結する。本論文はその定量的根拠を提供する。
In the global GX context
This paper provides empirical evidence on how climate change shapes global cereal trade patterns, relevant for climate adaptation in food systems and trade policy under TCFD/ISSB frameworks.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Useful for climate-trade modeling and convergence analysis methodology.
🏢実務担当者:Informs supply chain risk assessment for food procurement and climate adaptation.
🏛政策担当者:Supports food security policy and trade negotiations under climate scenarios.
📄 Abstract（原文）
In view of the increasing negative impacts of climate change, international cereal trade has become a growing concern. This study examines the impact of climate change on cereal exports. The analysis consists of two stages. In the first stage, we investigate convergence in cereal exports across countries and identify potential clusters of similar export behaviour. To this end, club convergence analysis was conducted using export data from 95 countries for the period 2000–2022. The results reveal that countries are grouped into seven distinct clubs, indicating shared convergence paths. In the second stage, the impact of climate change on the formation of these clubs is analysed using the ordered logit model. This model assesses how climatic factors influence a country's likelihood of belonging to a particular convergence club. The findings show that precipitation and carbon emissions significantly increase the likelihood of being in the top two clubs with high cereal trade. This suggests that climate change is a critical dynamic in shaping convergence clubs.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.17221/142/2025-agriceconfirst seen 2026-06-15 05:01:28 · last seen 2026-06-16 04:41:43
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