中央銀行のグリーン介入と金融安定：低炭素移行を支えるインドネシア銀行の役割分析

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🔬研究者:グリーン金融政策と金融安定の因果関係をSVARで識別する手法と新興国の実証結果を参考にできる。

🏢実務担当者:インドネシア事業を持つ企業は、中央銀行のグリーン政策が資金調達環境や為替・信用条件に与える影響を把握できる。

🏛政策担当者:気候ストレステストや金融・財政・市場当局間の連携強化を検討する際の、中央銀行グリーン政策の有効性エビデンスとなる。

Purpose: Climate change has emerged as a systemic source of macroeconomic and financial instability, influencing monetary transmission, credit risks, asset pricing, and capital flows. This study aims to empirically assess how green central bank interventions strengthen Indonesia’s financial stability during the transition toward a low-carbon economy. The analysis focuses on the dynamic impact of the Green Policy Index (GPI)—a composite indicator capturing green communication, collateral frameworks, and liquidity facilities—on the Financial Stability Index (FSI). Methods: Using quarterly data from 2010Q1 to 2025Q2, this study employs a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model to identify structural shocks and disentangle the causal interactions among GPI, FSI, inflation, policy rates, exchange rates, and global energy prices. Identification relies on short-run restrictions consistent with green monetary policy theory, while impulse response functions (IRF) and forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) are used to measure the magnitude and persistence of policy effects.Results: The IRF results show that a positive shock to GPI significantly enhances financial stability within 4–6 quarters, with the peak response reaching approximately 0.35 index points. Green interventions stabilize markets through credit, liquidity, and confidence channels while supporting temporary appreciation in the exchange rate. FEVD results indicate that GPI accounts for roughly 38–40% of the variation in FSI over a 12-quarter horizon, surpassing the influence of policy rates, inflation, exchange rates, and global energy shocks.Implications: The findings highlight the strategic role of green central bank interventions as an integral component of macro-financial stability. The study suggests strengthening Indonesia’s green policy mix, integrating climate-based stress testing, and enhancing coordination among monetary, fiscal, and market authorities to ensure a credible, consistent, and effective transition to a low-carbon economy

• semanticscholar https://journal.cattleyadf.org/index.php/Jasmien/article/download/2571/1460first seen 2026-10-21 05:32:13 · last seen 2026-11-06 05:44:43