Evaluation of National Greenhouse Gas Removal Potential in Great Britain under a Changing Climate Using a Process-based Land Surface Model
気候変動下における英国の国家温室効果ガス除去ポテンシャルの評価：プロセスベース陸面モデルを用いて (AI 翻訳)
Chou, Hsi-Kai, Harper, Anna, Argles, Arthur, Duran Rojas, Maria Carolina, Littleton, Emma, Betts, Richard, Cox, Peter
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、プロセスベースの陸面モデルJULES-REDを用いて、気候変動下での英国の植林による温室効果ガス除去（GGR）ポテンシャルを評価した。低気候変動シナリオ（RCP26_EM15）の下で、2025年から2050年にかけて毎年3万haのペースでシトカスプルースを植林した場合、2080年までに年間約1500万トンのCO2を吸収できると予測した。この結果は、将来の気候変動に対する植林の回復力を理解するためのプロセス表現と気候駆動シミュレーションの重要性を示している。
English
This study evaluates the greenhouse gas removal (GGR) potential of afforestation in Great Britain under climate change using the process-based land surface model JULES-RED. Under a low-climate-change scenario (RCP26_EM15), widespread Sitka spruce afforestation at 30,000 ha/yr from 2025 to 2050 could sequester approximately 15 MtCO2 per year by 2080. The results demonstrate the importance of process representation and climate-driven simulations for understanding the resilience of afforested trees to future climate change.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本では、2050年カーボンニュートラル達成に向けて森林吸収源の確保が重要視されており、本研究成果は日本の森林管理や植林政策に示唆を与える。特に、気候変動の影響を考慮した長期的な森林吸収量の評価手法は、日本の温室効果ガスインベントリや適応策の検討に参考となる。
In the global GX context
This study provides a robust methodology for assessing the climate resilience of afforestation as a greenhouse gas removal strategy, which is relevant to global efforts under the Paris Agreement and national net-zero targets. It highlights the need for process-based models in evaluating long-term carbon sequestration potential, informing climate policy and land-use planning internationally.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a process-based modeling approach for assessing afforestation GGR potential under climate change, useful for land surface modelers and climate policy researchers.
🏢実務担当者:Offers insights for land managers and forestry companies on the long-term carbon sequestration potential of afforestation under different climate scenarios.
🏛政策担当者:Informs national climate strategies and land-use policies on the role of afforestation in achieving net-zero targets, considering climate resilience.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Global warming and climate change driven by greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) will have wide-range impacts on forest ecosystems. As part of the GB’s planned contribution to global efforts to mitigate these impacts, the Climate Change Act sets a target of achieving net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. A central component of this strategy is the use of afforestation and forest management to deliver large-scale Greenhouse Gas Removal (GGR). These measures must remain resilient to some degree of climate change, even if the international community succeeds in limiting global warming in line with the Paris Agreement. However, the effectiveness of afforestation as a GGR strategy is difficult to fully assess using standard empirical models due to the complexity of changing environmental conditions. Here we use JULES-RED, a process-based land surface model with a coupled forest demography model. We focus on a low-climate-change scenario (RCP26_EM15), which results in peak global warming close to 2 o C. Our projections indicated that widespread Sitka spruce afforestation could sequester approximately 15 MtCO 2 per year by 2080, assuming a planting rate of 30,000 ha yr -1 from 2025 to 2050. The results both demonstrate the importance of process representation and climate-driven simulations of afforestation to understand the resilience of afforested trees to future climate change. These data include: 1. Information of locations and the modelling data ( Locations and Dataset.xlsx )
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- Zenodo https://zenodo.org/records/21818985first seen 2026-08-07 04:16:21
🔔 こうした論文の新着を逃したくない方は キーワードアラート に登録（無料・3キーワードまで）。
gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。