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The Time-Varying Interdependence Between Renewable Energy Development and Carbon Price Crash Risk in China: A Rolling-Window Analysis

中国における再生可能エネルギー開発と炭素価格暴落リスクの時変相互依存性：ローリングウィンドウ分析 (AI 翻訳)

Li X, Li Z, Tao M, Zhao Y, Zhu S

Research Squareプレプリント2026-06-22#炭素価格Origin: CN対象セクター: power
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9811611/v1
原典: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9811611/v1

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本研究は、中国の再生可能エネルギー（RE）展開と炭素価格暴落リスク（CPR）の間の時変的な因果関係を、ブートストラップ・ローリングウィンドウ・グレンジャー因果性テストを用いて分析。結果、RE拡大はCPRを有意に抑制し、炭素市場の安定化に寄与すること、またCPRの上昇がさらなるRE投資を促すことが確認された。これらの効果は新型コロナ禍以降特に顕著であり、気候ガバナンスにおける両政策の統合の重要性を示唆する。

English

This study examines the time-varying causal relationship between renewable energy (RE) development and carbon price crash risk (CPR) in China using a bootstrap rolling-window Granger causality test. Results show that RE expansion significantly reduces CPR, stabilizing the carbon market, and that elevated CPR in turn stimulates further RE investment. These effects have become more pronounced since COVID-19, highlighting the need for integrated renewable promotion and carbon market safeguards.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

中国の炭素市場と再エネ政策の相互作用を実証した本稿は、日本が進めるカーボンプライシング（東証カーボンクレジット市場など）と再エネ導入拡大の両立戦略に示唆を与える。特に、市場安定化と再エネ投資の好循環は、日本のGX政策（成長志向型カーボンプライシング構想）との比較において参考になる。

In the global GX context

By modeling the bidirectional linkage between RE deployment and carbon price crash risk in China, this paper offers insights for global carbon market design—especially for jurisdictions like the EU and South Korea. The finding that RE investment can stabilize carbon prices reinforces the case for policy integration between renewable support schemes and emissions trading systems.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Rolling-window causality method reveals time-varying dynamics between renewable energy and carbon price crash risk, useful for further research on carbon market stability.

🏢実務担当者:For carbon market participants and renewable energy investors, the results suggest that RE expansion reduces carbon price downside risk, aiding risk management and investment decisions.

🏛政策担当者:The evidence supports integrating renewable energy promotion with carbon market safeguards to enhance climate governance effectiveness and market stability.

📄 Abstract（原文）

<title>Abstract</title> <p> Advancing renewable energy (RE) deployment and maintaining carbon market stability are twin pillars of China’s carbon neutrality strategy. How these two domains interact in the domain of price crash risk, however, is poorly understood. To address this gap, this study employs a bootstrap rolling-window Granger causality framework to detect how the relationship between RE development and carbon price crash risk (CPR) shifts across different time periods. Our empirical results reveal that RE expansion significantly mitigates CPR, indicating that clean energy investment serves as a stabilizing force in the carbon market. Moreover, elevated CPR induces further sustainable investment in RE projects. Both effects have grown especially pronounced since the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings suggest that integrating renewable energy promotion with carbon market safeguards is essential for effective climate governance and the achievement of sustainable transition goals. <bold>JEL codes:</bold> C32; Q42; Q48 </p>

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