中国デジタル経済の条件付き低炭素効果：産業高度化の調整効果と経済発展閾値

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🔬研究者:Digital economy and carbon reduction nexus, with moderation and threshold analysis.

🏢実務担当者:Insights for aligning digital transformation with decarbonization strategies.

🏛政策担当者:Evidence for tailoring digital low-carbon policies to regional development stages.

Against China’s dual carbon peaking and carbon neutrality strategic goals, nationwide digital transformation brings both carbon abatement dividends and potential energy rebound risks, and its full low-carbon potential is constrained by local industrial foundations and regional economic development stages. Most existing studies merely treat industrial upgrading as an intermediate transmission channel, with little discussion of its moderating influence. Moreover, few threshold analyses take the comprehensive level of regional economic development as the core threshold variable to capture the boundary conditions of digital decarbonization effects. Based on balanced panel data covering 30 provincial-level regions of China from 2011 to 2023, this paper constructs a multi-dimensional digital economy index via the entropy weight method. Prior to formal regression, we conduct Pearson correlation analysis and mean-centered VIF multicollinearity diagnostics to avoid biased estimation. Two-way fixed-effects regression, moderation tests, Bootstrap-based regional heterogeneity comparison and Hansen’s single threshold model are adopted for empirical analysis. The results show that digital economy development significantly curbs carbon emission intensity; a one-standard-deviation increase in the digital economy composite index is associated with an approximately 9.7% decline in carbon emission intensity. The mean-centered interaction term DIG × UIS is significantly negative at the 1% level, proving that service-oriented industrial upgrading strengthens the carbon reduction effect of digitalization. The mitigation effect displays distinct spatial divergence: the estimated coefficient equals −2.638 for eastern provinces, −3.585 for central regions and −1.700 for western areas. Bootstrap inter-group coefficient tests confirm statistically significant gaps between east–west and central–western subgroups. Threshold regression identifies a single threshold of logarithmic per capita GDP at 11.94. After crossing this economic development threshold, the inhibitory coefficient of the digital economy rises markedly from −0.844 to −1.473. This study enriches the theoretical system of digital low-carbon transition by jointly uncovering the moderating role of industrial upgrading and the stage threshold constraint of economic development and offers differentiated digital low-carbon policy guidance for provincial governments.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/su18178620first seen 2026-08-26 04:38:47