干ばつの伝染と暑熱の代替：複合気候極端現象が持続可能な観光に及ぼす空間的波及効果
Drought Contagion and Heat Substitution: Spatial Spillover Effects of Compound Climate Extremes on Sustainable Tourism (原題)
Jingwen Li, Shule Li
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
中国四川省の観光需要に対する複合気候極端現象の直接的・空間的波及効果を、75年間のERA5データと11年間のパネルデータを用いて定量分析。干ばつは局所的に観光を減少させる一方、湿潤高温イベントは涼しい隣接地域への観光代替を促す正の波及効果を持つことを発見。一方、干ばつと乾燥高温は負の波及効果（ブランド伝染）を示し、イベントタイプによって波及メカニズムが異なることを実証した。
English
This study quantifies direct and spatial spillover effects of compound climate extremes on tourism demand in Sichuan, China, using ERA5 reanalysis and municipal panel data. Prolonged droughts reduce local tourism, while wet-hot events cause positive spillovers as tourists substitute toward cooler neighboring destinations. In contrast, drought and dry-hot events produce negative spillovers consistent with regional brand contagion. These contrasting mechanisms are invisible to non-spatial models and inform spatially coordinated adaptation strategies.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本では気候変動適応策や地域観光戦略への示唆が得られる。特に、気候リスクが地域間で波及するメカニズムは、日本の観光地や自治体の適応計画立案に参考となる。ただし、GX（脱炭素）そのものではなく、気候変動影響評価の一部として位置づけられる。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to global climate adaptation scholarship by demonstrating that compound climate events have spatially heterogeneous impacts on tourism, requiring coordinated adaptation across regions. It highlights the need for event-specific and spatially aware policies, which is relevant for climate risk disclosure and adaptation planning under frameworks like TCFD.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides empirical evidence on spatial spillovers of climate extremes on tourism, useful for climate risk modeling and adaptation research.
🏢実務担当者:Tourism operators and regional planners can use findings to anticipate demand shifts during climate events and coordinate with neighboring regions.
🏛政策担当者:Suggests that climate adaptation strategies should be spatially coordinated and event-specific, informing regional climate policy.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Sustainable tourism is increasingly threatened by compound climate extremes, but how these hazards propagate through destination networks is poorly understood. This study quantifies the direct and cross-boundary spillover effects of compound climate extremes on tourism demand in Sichuan Province, China, by integrating 75 years of high-resolution ERA5 reanalysis data with an 11-year municipal panel dataset (2014–2024, N = 21). Employing a gravity center migration model and a two-way fixed-effects spatial econometric model, we find that prolonged droughts impose a significant direct local damage on tourism, while wet-hot compound events generate a substantial positive spatial spillover, indicating that tourists spatially substitute toward cooler neighboring destinations rather than cancelling travel. By contrast, drought and dry-hot events produce negative spillovers consistent with regional brand contagion. These contrasting propagation mechanisms (spatial substitution versus contagion) depend fundamentally on event type and are invisible to conventional non-spatial models. Our findings directly inform global sustainable development objectives related to climate action and economic growth, offering an evidence base for spatially coordinated, event-specific climate adaptation strategies in mountain tourism networks facing accelerating climate risks.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/su18179115first seen 2026-09-09 05:06:26
🔔 こうした論文の新着を逃したくない方は キーワードアラート に登録（無料・3キーワードまで）。
gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。