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Can government intervention through R&D steer fossil energy consumption? Evidence from the G7 economies: A MMQR approach

政府のR&D介入は化石燃料消費を抑制できるか？G7経済からのエビデンス：MMQRアプローチ (AI 翻訳)

Sellami O, Youssef SB

Research Squareプレプリント2026-06-25#エネルギー転換Origin: Global対象セクター: cross_sector
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-10133882/v1
原典: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-10133882/v1

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本研究は、G7諸国（1990-2023年）を対象に、政府の研究開発（R&D）支出が化石燃料消費（FEC）に与える影響をMMQR手法で分析。再生可能エネルギー向けR&D（RDR）はFECを有意に減少させ、特に化石燃料依存度が低い国で効果が大きい。一方、化石燃料向けR&D（RDF）はFECを増加させるが、その効果は高分位で減衰。因果関係も確認され、RDRへのシフトを提言。

English

This study examines the effect of government R&D spending on fossil energy consumption (FEC) in G7 countries (1990-2023) using MMQR. Findings show that renewable energy R&D (RDR) significantly reduces FEC, especially at lower quantiles, while fossil energy R&D (RDF) increases FEC, with effect diminishing at higher quantiles. Causality tests support shifting RDF to RDR for energy transition.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本を含むG7諸国を対象とした実証分析。日本のエネルギー政策やR&D投資の方向性（特に水素・再エネ技術）を考える上で示唆に富む。国内のGX投資配分の議論に活用可能。

In the global GX context

Relevant for global GX policy as it provides evidence that public R&D allocation can steer fossil fuel consumption. Supports ISSB/TCFD-consistent narrative that government intervention accelerates energy transition.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides robust panel evidence on heterogeneous effects of R&D types on fossil energy consumption, useful for energy transition research.

🏛政策担当者:Recommends increasing renewable R&D and redirecting fossil R&D subsidies, directly actionable for G7 energy ministries.

📄 Abstract（原文）

<title>Abstract</title> <p> In light of international climate commitments, notably the Kyoto Protocol 1997, the Paris Agreement 2015, and COP-26, which collectively urge nations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and accelerate the transition from fossil fuels toward cleaner and more sustainable energy sources, this paper examines the ability of governments to steer energy consumption through public R&D spending. Focusing on the G7 countries over the period 1990–2023, this study employs the Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) approach to capture potential heterogeneous effects across the distribution of fossil energy consumption (FEC). The empirical findings reveal that public R&D expenditure directed toward renewable energy (RDR) exerts a significant negative effect on FEC. This effect is more pronounced at the lower quantiles of the distribution, indicating that green innovation plays a stronger role in reducing fossil energy dependence in relatively less fossil-intensive contexts. In contrast, public R&D spending oriented toward fossil energy (RDF) is found to have a positive impact on FEC across all quantiles; however, the magnitude of this effect gradually declines at higher quantiles. Additionally, the Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) panel Granger non-causality test confirms the presence of bidirectional causality between RDF and FEC, and a unidirectional causality running from RDR to FEC. Given these robust findings, we recommend that policymakers in the G7 countries increase RDR, while progressively channeling a portion of RDF toward RDR to support the energy transition. <bold>JEL classifications :</bold> O32, Q43, Q42, H50, C23 </p>

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