gxceed
← 論文一覧に戻る

Heterogeneous Decarbonization: Technology-Specific Renewable Shocks and Asymmetric Emissions Responses Across the Global Economy

不均一な脱炭素化：技術別再生可能エネルギーショックと世界経済における非対称な排出反応 (AI 翻訳)

Wasiu Akintunde

プレプリント2026-05-28#エネルギー転換Origin: US
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9828334/v1
原典: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9828334/v1

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

再生可能エネルギーの普及による排出削減効果は国によって大きく異なる。途上国では出力低下により16～33%排出削減が生じる一方、先進国では太陽光ショックで最大39%のリバウンド効果が発生。固定効果モデルとベイズリッジ回帰で再生可能エネルギー導入の排出削減効果を確認。

English

This study shows that renewable energy deployment yields heterogeneous emission reductions across countries. Developing economies see 16-33% reductions through output contraction, while advanced economies experience rebounds up to 39% under solar shocks. Fixed-effects and Bayesian Ridge methods confirm a robust emissions-reducing effect of renewables.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本のエネルギー政策において、系統柔軟性や燃料代替能力の違いが再生可能エネルギー導入効果に与える影響を示唆。日本でも再生可能エネルギー拡大に伴うリバウンド効果の考慮が必要。

In the global GX context

This paper highlights the importance of grid flexibility and fuel substitution capacity in determining the effectiveness of renewable energy deployment, relevant for global climate policy design.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Confirms heterogeneous rebound effects using CGE and panel data, offering methodological insights.

🏢実務担当者:Highlights that renewable deployment strategies must account for domestic grid conditions to avoid rebound effects.

🏛政策担当者:Shows that uniform renewable targets may have asymmetric impacts; differentiated policies are needed.

📄 Abstract（原文）

Abstract Climate policy often assumes that renewable energy deployment produces similar emission reductions across countries, despite major differences in grid flexibility and fuel substitution capacity. Using the GTAP-E-Power computable general equilibrium framework calibrated to eight global regions and twenty-two sectors, together with panel data for 59 countries from 2000 to 2023, this paper examines how technology-specific renewable shocks affect emissions, production, and welfare. The results reveal a heterogeneous rebound problem in which developing economies with rigid grids experience emissions declines of 16–33% through output contraction, while advanced economies substitute toward fossil generation, producing rebound effects of up to 39% under solar shocks. Solar shocks generate the strongest rebounds, while firm zero-emission baseload contractions intensify coal substitution. Demand-side efficiency policies generate substantial welfare gains but impose negative spillovers on trade-exposed regions. Fixed-effects and Bayesian Ridge methods consistently confirm a robust emissions-reducing effect of renewable energy deployment, with a fixed-effects elasticity of -0.30 and a Bayesian Ridge posterior mean of -0.40. JEL Classification: Q43 , Q53 , Q58 , F18 , C68

🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース

🔔 こうした論文の新着を逃したくない方は キーワードアラート に登録（無料・3キーワードまで）。

gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。