炭素排出削減におけるドイツの石炭火力閉鎖補償スキームの費用対効果分析
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Germany's Compensation Scheme for Coal Plant Closures in Reducing Carbon Emissions (原題)
Lourenco Wang
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
ドイツが2020〜2022年に実施した石炭火力閉鎖の逆オークション補償制度の費用対効果を検証。約9,974MWが約7億ユーロで廃止され、初年度の削減コストは約18ユーロ/t-CO2と、EU ETS平均価格52.3ユーロ/tを大きく下回った。入札ラウンドを重ねるごとに補償単価が上昇し、低コスト削減機会の枯渇と戦略的入札の増加を示唆する。
English
This paper evaluates Germany's reverse-auction compensation scheme for coal plant closures (2020-2022). About 9,974 MW was retired for roughly €700 million, implying a first-year abatement cost of ~€18/tCO2 versus an average EU ETS price of €52.3/t. Compensation per MW rose across rounds, consistent with exhaustion of low-cost options and strategic bid shading.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本では石炭火力の段階的廃止とGX推進法・カーボンプライシングの設計が議論されており、逆オークションによる低コスト削減の実証は、国内の移行政策やトランジション・ファイナンスの制度設計に直接示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
As countries design carbon pricing and coal phase-out mechanisms under the Paris Agreement, Germany's auction-based compensation offers a concrete model for revealing marginal abatement costs. The finding that abatement costs fell well below the EU ETS price raises important questions about additionality and the interaction with cap-and-trade systems, relevant to global carbon market discussions.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:逆オークションの費用対効果とEU ETSとの相互作用を定量化した実証研究として、炭素価格政策の評価手法に関心のある研究者に有用。
🏢実務担当者:石炭資産を持つ企業にとって、閉鎖補償の入札戦略や移行計画の財務影響を検討する際の参考データを提供。
🏛政策担当者:炭素価格制度と補償スキームの設計において、低コスト削減を引き出す逆オークションの有効性と限界を示す。
📄 Abstract（原文）
This paper evaluates the cost-effectiveness of Germany's auction-based compensation scheme for coal plant closures between 2020 and 2022. Conventional instruments for pricing the negative externality of carbon emissions, namely Pigouvian taxes and emissions trading, fix either price or quantity, but neither explicitly targets the lowest-cost abatement opportunities. Germany's reverse auction, introduced under the Kohleverstromungsbeendigungsgesetz, invites operators to submit sealed bids for closure compensation, in principle revealing marginal abatement costs and directing public funds to the least-cost closures. Drawing on award data from the Bundesnetzagentur across five auction rounds and emission factors from the Umweltbundesamt, the paper constructs a capacity-weighted emission factor for the closed fleet and derives a cost per tonne of CO₂ abated. Approximately 9,974 MW of capacity was retired for around €700 million, implying a first-year cost of roughly €18 per tonne against an average EU ETS allowance price of €52.3 per tonne over the same period, a result that holds across a range of utilisation and counterfactual-lifetime assumptions. Compensation per megawatt rose across successive rounds, consistent with both the exhaustion of low-cost abatement options and increasing strategic bid shading as competition declined. The analysis is limited by incomplete disclosure of compensation in later rounds, by assumptions required to model plant utilisation, and by the interaction between national closures and the EU-wide emissions cap, which is not modelled here.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22115840first seen 2026-09-14 04:35:25 · last seen 2026-09-14 04:36:04
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