The Decarbonization Potential of a New Short-Sea Ro-Pax Corridor in the Baltic Sea: Methodology and a Case Study of the Gdynia–Liepāja Connection
バルト海における新設ショートシーRo-Pax回廊の脱炭素化ポテンシャル：方法論とグディニャ–リエパーヤ航路のケーススタディ (AI 翻訳)
Aleksandra Wawrzyńska, Maciej Szulist
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
EU ETSが海運に適用された2024年以降、新設の短距離海運回廊の脱炭素効果を評価する方法論を提案。グディニャ–リエパーヤ航路を事例に、道路輸送からのモーダルシフトで1ユニットあたり300–380kgのCO2削減（44–55%減）を試算。ただし、設計速度で約45%、減速運航で約34%のデッキ稼働率が損益分岐点であり、需要が低い場合は効果が限定的。需要シナリオに応じて年間1万–1.34万トンのCO2削減が見込まれる。
English
This study proposes a transferable methodology to assess the decarbonization potential of a new short-sea Ro-Pax corridor under the EU ETS, applied to the Gdynia–Liepāja route. Modal shift from road avoids 300–380 kg CO2 per freight unit (44–55% reduction), but only above a break-even deck occupancy of ~45% at design speed (~34% under slow steaming). Annual savings range from 10,000–13,400 t CO2 under high demand, with low demand yielding marginal or negative results. Provides a replicable decision tool for operators and port authorities.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本では、2028年度からの海運への排出規制導入が検討されており、内航・短距離海運のモーダルシフト促進策（トラックから船舶へ）の評価に応用可能。特に、離島航路や沿岸輸送の脱炭素化を検討する際の費用対効果分析の枠組みとして参考になる。
In the global GX context
With maritime transport entering the EU ETS in 2024, this paper offers a replicable framework for evaluating new short-sea corridors' carbon performance, relevant to global shipping decarbonization and modal shift policies. The break-even occupancy analysis provides a practical threshold for operators and policymakers under carbon pricing, applicable to other regions considering similar corridors.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a transparent methodology combining route selection, demand modeling, and carbon balance that can be adapted to other corridors and regions.
🏢実務担当者:Offers a decision-support tool for shipping operators and port authorities to assess the economic and environmental viability of new short-sea services under carbon pricing.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the conditional climate benefits of short-sea corridors, informing infrastructure investment and modal shift policies under the EU ETS.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Maritime transport entered the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) in 2024, turning a route’s carbon performance into an economic variable. Existing studies examine this on established routes; the case for a new (greenfield) short-sea corridor under the post-2024 regime remains unaddressed, particularly in the under-served south-eastern Baltic. This study proposes a transparent, transferable methodology linking multi-criteria route selection, a lane-metre demand model, a speed-dependent fuel-consumption model and a consignment-level modal-shift carbon balance, applied to a prospective Gdynia–Liepāja Ro-Pax connection (148 nautical miles). At high deck utilization, each freight unit shifted from the 850 km road alternative avoids roughly 300–380 kg of CO2 (a 44–55% reduction), because a short-sea leg replaces a long road haul rather than because the ferry is cleaner per tonne-kilometre. The benefit is conditional: the corridor is climate-beneficial only above a break-even freight-deck occupancy of about 45% at design speed, falling to about 34% under slow steaming. Across the demand scenarios (about 17,900–35,900 units per year), it avoids on the order of 10,000–13,400 t of CO2 annually under high demand, while under low demand the annual balance ranges from a small net increase at design speed to a modest saving under slow steaming. The corridor relieves the congested Suwałki Gap and aligns with smart-port enablers, providing a replicable decision tool for operators and port authorities.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- crossref https://doi.org/10.3390/su18168418first seen 2026-08-18 05:22:43
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