南アフリカの再生可能エネルギー移行におけるガバナンスの調整効果：社会的包摂への影響
The Moderating Role of Governance in South Africa's Renewable Energy Transition: Impacts on Social Inclusion (原題)
Felix Aberu
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
南アフリカの再エネ移行が社会的包摂に与える影響を、1990〜2025年の時系列データとARDL手法で分析。短期的には正の効果だが長期的には負の影響があり、石炭・ガス依存地域や労働者が不均衡なコストを負う。ガバナンス（ジャストトランジション枠組み、技能移行、社会保護）がこの関係を有意に調整し、制度能力の強化が不可欠と結論づける。
English
Using ARDL on 1990–2025 South African time-series data, the study finds renewable transition has a small positive short-run but negative long-run effect on social inclusion, as fossil-fuel-dependent communities bear disproportionate costs. Governance—just transition frameworks, skills programmes, social protection—significantly moderates this relationship, and institutional capacity is critical for the JET Partnership to avoid deepening inequality.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本でもGX推進と地域経済・雇用の公正な移行は重要課題であり、JET Partnershipの事例は日本のアジアにおけるトランジションファイナンス戦略やSSBJ開示における社会面（S）の扱いに示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper adds empirical evidence on the social dimension of transition finance, directly relevant to ISSB/CSRD social disclosures and the design of Just Energy Transition Partnerships globally, showing governance quality as a moderating factor in decarbonisation outcomes.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Transition Management TheoryとARDLを用いたガバナンス調整効果の実証例として、社会包摂と再エネ移行の関係を定量化する手法を参考にできる。
🏢実務担当者:新興国での再エネ事業やサプライチェーンにおける社会的リスク（地域雇用・コミュニティ影響）を評価する際のガバナンス要件の重要性を理解できる。
🏛政策担当者:JET Partnership等の国際支援を受ける際、制度能力・ステークホルダー関与・社会保護の設計が移行の包摂性を左右することを政策立案に反映すべき。
📄 Abstract（原文）
This study examines the role of governance in South Africa's transition to renewable energy and its impact on social inclusion, contributing to the existing literature by situating this relationship within the theoretical framework of Transition Management Theory (TMT). Annual time-series data for the period 1990–2025 are analysed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to estimate both short-run and long-run dynamics. Results suggest that the transition to renewable energy has an insignificant but positive impact on social inclusion in the short run. The long-run estimates, however, indicate a negative impact, as coal-mining towns, communities dependent on natural gas and other fossil-fuel extraction, and workers employed in fossil-fuel-related industries face disproportionate socioeconomic costs from the phase-out of fossil fuels. Without proper governance measures — such as just transition frameworks, skills-transition programmes, social protection policies and targeted job-creation policies — the shift to renewable energy risks deepening existing inequalities. These findings provide empirical evidence that governance significantly moderates this relationship by improving institutional capacity, coordination, stakeholder engagement and the equitable distribution of renewable energy rents. Policymakers should therefore prioritise governance systems — supported by well-designed transition policies — that steer the renewable energy transition in ways that are environmentally sustainable, economically transformative and socially inclusive. In particular, the findings offer practical guidance for policymakers engaged in the Just Energy Transition (JET) Partnership on strengthening institutional capacity so that decarbonisation does not deepen existing socio-economic inequalities. Overall, the study offers new insights into the relationship between governance, renewable energy and social inclusion in South Africa, and concludes that strong institutions are critical to managing the social risks of the transition to green energy while securing its benefits for inclusive development.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.58423/2786-6742/2026-14-13-33first seen 2026-10-22 04:44:22 · last seen 2026-10-30 04:40:26
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