植生炭素吸収源の不安定性における気候要因の定量化と空間リスクの特定：内モンゴル中西部の事例研究
Quantifying climatic drivers and identifying spatial risks of vegetation carbon sink instability: a case study of central–western Inner Mongolia (原題)
Yang Liu, Pai Wen, Ailian Wang
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
内モンゴル中西部の植生炭素吸収源の安定性を、時系列解析、XGBoost-SHAP、MaxEntモデルを用いて評価。2014〜2023年のNEPは微増傾向で、約25,500km2が炭素吸収源と排出源の間で変動。気温変動がNEP変動の約62%を説明し、将来シナリオではSSP245とSSP370でリスクが広がる。
English
This study assesses vegetation carbon sink stability in central-western Inner Mongolia using time-series analysis, XGBoost-SHAP, and MaxEnt modeling. From 2014-2023, NEP showed a slight upward trend with ~25,500 km2 switching between sink and source states. Temperature variability explained ~62% of NEP fluctuations, and future scenarios SSP245 and SSP370 project widespread risk transitions.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のGX文脈では、気候変動が炭素吸収源に与える影響評価は、JCMや森林吸収源の報告に示唆を与える。ただし、地域固有の研究であり、直接的な政策連動は限定的。
In the global GX context
This study contributes to global understanding of vegetation carbon sink instability under climate change, relevant for climate risk assessments and nature-based solutions. It highlights the vulnerability of ecological transition zones, informing global carbon budget accounting and adaptation strategies.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a framework for quantifying climatic drivers of carbon sink instability using ML and species distribution models.
🏛政策担当者:Informs climate adaptation and land management policies in vulnerable dryland ecosystems.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Vegetation carbon sinks are critical for the global carbon budget, yet their stability in vulnerable ecosystems remains poorly understood. This gap is pronounced in central–western Inner Mongolia due to the nonlinear responses of vegetation carbon sinks to climatic factors and spatial heterogeneity. This study integrates time-series analysis, XGBoost–SHAP, and an optimized MaxEnt model, utilizing MODIS/Terra MOD17A3HGF net primary productivity (NPP) data, interpolated climate data from the China Meteorological Data Service Centre, and future climate data from the BCC-CSM2-MR model, to identify climatic regulators of vegetation carbon sinks and project their spatial risk patterns. Key findings include: (1) During 2014–2023, regional net ecosystem productivity (NEP) showed a slight upward trend with noticeable interannual fluctuations; comparing 2014–2023, approximately 25,500 km 2 of vegetated area switched between carbon sink and source states. (2) Temperature-related interannual variability accounted for approximately 62% of NEP fluctuations, with the variability of maximum temperature of the warmest month (bio5 IVA ) contributing the most (19.4%). Precipitation-related variability contributed the remaining 38%, and interactions between temperature and precipitation jointly shaped ecosystem instability. (3) High-risk and extreme-risk areas clustered along desert margins, with risk levels declining outward. Risk patterns under SSP126 (+1.76 °C by 2040 relative to 2023) remained stable, whereas SSP245 (+2.28 °C) and SSP370 (+2.53 °C) induced widespread risk-level transitions, highlighting the acute vulnerability of ecological transition zones to climate forcing. Although recent studies highlight the important roles of vapor pressure deficit and soil moisture in regulating dryland carbon sinks, these factors were not directly quantified in this study. Future efforts will integrate them to refine the predictions. This framework will provide a mechanistic basis for early warning and targeted management of vegetation carbon sinks in vulnerable ecosystems.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/environmental-science/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2026.1819623/pdffirst seen 2026-08-30 05:27:45 · last seen 2026-09-21 05:16:34
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