MEPC83とCO2価格が海運セクターの脱化石燃料化経路に与える影響
Impact of MEPC83 and CO2 Prices on Defossilisation Pathways for the Maritime Sector (原題)
T. Teske, Annika Fitz, Shaghayegh Kazemi Esfeh, Maria Edith Elizondo Guerrero, Thorben Schwedt, Andres Felipe Percy Toscano, L. Baetcke, Sören Ehlers
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
IMOのMEPC83が提案した燃料GHG強度規制とEUのETS・FuelEU規制が、海運の脱炭素化に与える影響を評価した。コスト志向モデル「ReFleet」で複数の脱化石経路を比較し、再生可能燃料が化石燃料と競合するための排出価格水準を試算。市場原理だけでは不十分で、戦略的な炭素価格とインセンティブが代替燃料導入の鍵となると結論づける。
English
This paper quantifies how IMO MEPC83 fuel GHG-intensity rules and EU ETS/FuelEU measures affect maritime defossilisation. Using a cost-oriented model (ReFleet), it compares pathways and derives emission prices that let renewable fuels compete with fossil fuels. It finds market forces alone are insufficient; strategic carbon pricing and incentives are critical to meet EU/IMO targets.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
海運は日本にとって輸出入の生命線であり、IMO規制とEU ETSは邦船社・荷主の調達コストと競争力に直結する。炭素価格水準の試算は、国内のGX政策・カーボンプライシング設計や海運のトランジション・ファイナンス検討にも示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
Shipping is now inside the EU ETS and facing IMO net-zero rules, making carbon pricing a live lever for global disclosure and transition finance. This work helps regulators and financiers calibrate emission prices needed to close the green-fuel cost gap, complementing TCFD/ISSB-aligned transition planning.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:海運脱炭素のモデリング手法と炭素価格の閾値分析を提供する。
🏢実務担当者:自社船隊の脱炭素投資判断やEU/IMO規制対応コスト試算に活用できる。
🏛政策担当者:IMO・EU規制の実効性を踏まえ、炭素価格やインセンティブ設計の必要性を示す。
📄 Abstract（原文）
The recently proposed requirements on the greenhouse gas intensity of fuels used in shipping by the 83rd session of the IMO’s Maritime Environment Protection Committee (MEPC83), aim to support the sector in achieving net zero emissions by 2050. Additionally, the European Union has passed laws regulating the greenhouse gas intensity of fuels and also incorporated the shipping sector into its emission trading system (ETS), as part of the “fit for 55” package, which aims to reduce the EU’s emissions by 55 % in 2030. Both the IMO and the EU’s targets are ambitious and need sufficient incentives for ship owners to accelerate the transition to a green fleet. To evaluate the current regulatory incentives and determine whether they are sufficient to achieve the ambitious targets set out by the IMO and the EU, this paper aims to quantify the impact of the regulatory measures on selected fleets and find emission prices, which would allow renewable fuels to compete with fossil fuels. For this, a cost-oriented modeling approach is proposed and incorporated into the tool “ReFleet”, which allows different defossilization pathways to be compared with each other. A sensitivity analysis is carried out, subjecting ReFleet to different emission-based penalties to evaluate the competitiveness of green alternative propulsion systems to the status quo. The findings suggest market forces alone are insufficient and strategic penalties (e.g., carbon pricing) and incentives emerge as critical tools to accelerate alternative fuel deployment and meet the regulatory benchmarks set out by the EU/IMO.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://asmedigitalcollection.asme.org/OMAE/proceedings-pdf/OMAE2026/89596/V010T14A021/7645861/v010t14a021-omae2026-180142.pdffirst seen 2026-10-01 05:19:55 · last seen 2026-10-02 05:19:11
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