中国における太陽光パネル廃棄物の到来：循環経済に向けたリサイクルポテンシャルの体系的評価
The Coming Wave of PV Waste in China: A Systematic Assessment of Recycling Potentials toward a Circular Economy (原題)
Jiaying Wang, Da Liu, Yi Wu, Ci Yu, Zhe Kong, Qianchen Hu
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
中国の太陽光発電（PV）産業拡大に伴い、廃棄パネルの処理が課題となる。本研究は2050年までの廃棄PV量と資源ポテンシャルをシナリオ別に評価し、累積1164〜1403GW、資源量6.43〜7.86×10^7MTと推計。リサイクルにより累積純経済便益9035〜1兆886億元（約1404〜1620億ドル）、CO2削減1.11〜1.42億トン等の便益を示す。
English
As China's solar PV industry expands, decommissioned panel waste becomes a major challenge. This study builds a scenario framework to assess cumulative PV waste and recycling benefits through 2050, projecting 1164–1403 GW of retired capacity and 6.43–7.86×10^7 MT of resource potential. Recycling could yield CNY 903–1089 billion in net economic benefit, cut 111–142 Mt CO2-eq, and avoid large volumes of wastewater and solid waste.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国のPV廃棄物リサイクルは、日本が直面する太陽光発電の大量廃棄（2040年代問題）と制度的に類似する。資源循環と脱炭素を両立する評価枠組みは、日本の循環経済政策や廃棄物処理法改正、再エネ大量導入後の廃棄物管理戦略に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper quantifies the scale and economic value of end-of-life PV recycling, a growing issue under circular-economy and net-zero agendas globally. It offers a replicable assessment framework for countries facing similar decommissioning waves, complementing EU WEEE and PV take-back schemes and informing transition-finance discussions on resource recovery.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:PV廃棄物のシナリオ評価手法と資源・経済・環境便益の統合フレームワークを提供する。
🏢実務担当者:太陽光発電の廃棄・リサイクル計画や循環経済戦略の立案に、定量根拠と便益試算を活用できる。
🏛政策担当者:PV廃棄物管理政策やリサイクル制度設計のための、長期推計と政策オプションの基礎資料となる。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract Solar photovoltaic (PV) is recognized as one of the effective pathways to achieving carbon neutrality, receiving extensive advocacy and the most widespread implementation in China. However, the expansion of the photovoltaic industry has created significant challenges for waste management. Current research on the comprehensive resource potential and sustainable benefits of decommissioned PV systems in China remains insufficient, particularly when climate commitments and PV industry development stages are considered together. Accordingly, this study proposes a comprehensive evaluation framework to assess the multidimensional sustainable benefits of decommissioned PV recycling across integrated scenario combinations. The results indicate that (1) by 2050, cumulative decommissioned PV will range from 1164.2 to 1402.7 GW, generating 6.43 × 107–7.86 × 107 MT of resource potential. (2) An estimated 93.83% of the PV waste may consist of PV modules, 6.04% may be inverters, and 0.13% may be cables and brackets. Among these, glass (61%), aluminum (16%), and steel (14%) are projected to constitute the largest proportions. (3) Recycling decommissioned PV could generate cumulative net economic benefits ranging from CNY 903.49 to 1088.60 billion (USD 140.40 to 161.99 billion), save between 2.19 × 108 and 3.81 × 108 GJ of primary energy, reduce carbon emissions by 111.44 to 142.05 million tons of CO2-eq, decrease wastewater generation by 2.52 to 3.43 billion m3, and prevent the accumulation of solid waste by 47.27 to 56.95 billion tons. This study offers valuable insights into photovoltaic waste management and recycling in China, as well as guides other countries facing challenges in the disposal of decommissioned PV systems.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.energyfuels.6c02717first seen 2026-10-14 05:13:31
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