Impacts of climate change on Dunkelflaute events and high residual load in Japan
気候変動が日本のダンケルフラウテ事象と高残差負荷に与える影響 (AI 翻訳)
Masamichi Ohba, Shogo Sakamoto, Hiroaki Kawase, Akihiko Murata, Yu Fujimoto
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、日本の大規模アンサンブル気候データ（d4PDF）と機械学習を用い、気候変動が太陽光・風力の同時出力低下（ダンケルフラウテ）とシステム負荷に与える影響を評価。将来の温暖化進行に伴い、ダンケルフラウテ頻度が増加し、過去に例のない長期高残差負荷イベントが発生する可能性を示した。これらの知見は、エネルギー転換期の電力系統設計に気候変動影響を組み込む重要性を強調する。
English
This study uses Japan's large ensemble climate dataset (d4PDF) and machine learning to evaluate the impact of climate change on periods of low combined solar and wind output (Dunkelflaute) and system-level residual load. Projections show increased frequency of Dunkelflaute events under future warming, with potential for unprecedented long-duration high-residual-load events, especially as variable renewable energy deployment expands. The findings underscore the need to integrate climate change impacts into power system design during the energy transition.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本では再エネ主力電源化が進む一方、気候変動による出力変動リスクが電力安定供給に深刻な影響を与える可能性がある。本研究成果は、日本の長期エネルギー計画（第7次エネルギー基本計画など）や系統整備に気候リスク評価を組み込むためのエビデンスを提供する。
In the global GX context
As power systems globally shift toward high shares of variable renewables, understanding climate-driven risks to supply reliability is critical. This paper provides empirical evidence—using high-resolution Japanese data—that climate change can amplify the frequency and severity of energy droughts, informing the design of resilient grids, capacity mechanisms, and adaptation strategies in the energy transition.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a rigorous methodological framework (ML + large ensemble climate data) for assessing climate change impacts on VRE reliability, applicable to other regions.
🏢実務担当者:Highlights the need for utilities and grid operators to model climate-driven changes in renewable generation and demand for long-term resource adequacy planning.
🏛政策担当者:Supports integration of climate change scenarios into national energy planning, capacity markets, and renewable deployment targets to avoid future supply crises.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Periods characterized by simultaneous low solar and wind power generation, known as "energy droughts" or “ Dunkelflaute,” pose a substantial risk to electricity supply in systems with high penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE). However, the influence of future climate change on the frequency, persistence, and system-level impacts of Dunkelflaute and high-residual-load events remains poorly understood, creating a critical knowledge gap for renewable-dominated power systems. In this study, we evaluated the impact of climate change on the occurrence of Dunkelflaute events in Japan using the large ensemble climate dataset, d4PDF. Machine learning techniques were utilized to analyze climate projection data, enabling the projection of future VRE generation and electricity demand under present and future +2 K/+4 K warming scenarios over approximately 1,000 years. The projections indicate reductions in both wind and solar power generation in Japan. Our analysis reveals a tendency for an increased frequency of Dunkelflaute events under future climate warming. Furthermore, electricity demand is projected to rise with increasing temperatures, indicating the potential emergence of unprecedented, long-duration high-residual-load events. These effects are expected to intensify with future shifts in power generation portfolios, particularly with further expansion of VRE deployment, and may alter the seasonal and meteorological drivers of high-residual-load risk in Japan. These findings underscore the importance of integrating climate change impacts into power system design to maintain energy supply stability under future conditions in the context of the ongoing energy transition.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rset.2026.100157first seen 2026-07-13 05:15:33
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