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City-Scale, Source-ResolvedMethane Inventories RevealDrivers and Mitigation Pathways Across China’s Cities

中国の都市別・発生源別メタンインベントリが明らかにする排出要因と削減経路 (AI 翻訳)

Li Zhang, Y.-C Chen, Ke Wang, Jing Guo, Sen Liang, Pengcheng Wu, Haoyu Zhang, Jingyi Wu, Ying Cui, Chen Lyu, Hui Xu, Qunwei Wang, Bofeng Cai, Jinnan Wang, Linyan Li

Environmental Science & Technology📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-08-04#政策Origin: CN経営インパクト: 調達リスク対象セクター: cross_sector
DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.5c18654
原典: https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5c18654

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

中国の339都市を対象に、2018〜2024年のエネルギー・農業・廃棄物部門のメタン排出インベントリを調和化して構築。LMDI分解とシナリオ分析により、経済活動が主要な増加要因であること、統合的対策で2060年までに63.9%削減可能であることを示した。都市別の排出削減計画とMRV支援に貢献する。

English

This study develops a harmonized, source-resolved methane inventory for 339 Chinese cities (2018-2024) across energy, agriculture, and waste sectors. Using LMDI decomposition and scenario analysis, it identifies economic activity as the dominant driver and shows that integrated strategies could cut national methane emissions by 63.9% by 2060, supporting city-level mitigation planning and MRV.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

中国の都市別メタン排出データは、日本の自治体や企業がサプライチェーン排出量を把握する際の参考になる。また、メタン削減は日本のエネルギー政策や国際協力においても重要であり、データ基盤の構築方法が示唆に富む。

In the global GX context

This paper provides a robust city-level methane inventory methodology that aligns with global MRV requirements under the Global Methane Pledge and supports national reporting. It offers a model for integrating subnational data into climate policy, relevant for countries developing their own city-scale inventories.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides a comprehensive city-level methane inventory and decomposition method that can be replicated in other regions.

🏢実務担当者:Offers data and scenarios useful for companies with operations in China to assess methane-related risks and opportunities.

🏛政策担当者:Demonstrates the value of city-level inventories for designing targeted mitigation policies and tracking progress.

📄 Abstract(原文)

Abstract City-scale, source-resolved methane (CH4) inventories are needed in China because prefecture-level cities differ in energy systems, agricultural activities, and waste management. These differences lead to divergent dominant sources and mitigation needs. Yet city-level CH4 inventories across the energy, agriculture, and waste sectors remain scarce. This scarcity limits policy design, targeting, and evaluation. Here we develop a harmonized, annually consistent, multisector, source-resolved CH4 inventory for 339 prefecture-level cities in China during 2018–2024. We further use Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) driver attribution and scenario analysis to examine recent emission drivers and explore possible mitigation pathways. Over this period, national anthropogenic CH4 emissions increased by 2.61%, with regional heterogeneity shaped by differences in energy dependence, livestock management, and waste treatment. LMDI decomposition identifies economic activity as the dominant positive driver. Emission-intensity effects alternated between mitigating and reinforcing impacts, while structural effects were minor and population effects varied across space and time. Scenario simulations suggest that integrated multisector strategies could reduce national CH4 from 61.69 Mt in 2024–51.26 Mt in 2030 and 22.26 Mt in 2060, corresponding to a 63.9% reduction. These reductions are primarily driven by energy-sector measures, complemented by improvements in agriculture and waste management. This data set and attribution inform city-specific mitigation planning and source targeting, support monitoring, reporting, and verification, and provide a baseline for benchmarking progress toward national methane targets.

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