パリ整合シナリオ下における世界水素貿易のマルチモデル評価
Multi-model assessment of global hydrogen trade under Paris-aligned scenarios (原題)
Fakhreddine, Jana, Joshi, Siddharth, Cassamassima, Luca, Oliver, Fricko, Dodds, Paul, Butnar, Isabela, Krey, Volker
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
TIAM-UCLとMESSAGEixの2モデルで1.5℃・2℃経路の水素貿易を6シナリオ比較した。水素貿易は水素経済拡大に不可欠で、2050年には主に域内パイプライン網で3〜22EJ/年、国際液体水素貿易は2050〜60年に1〜6EJ/年（供給の5〜10%）に達する。地域の貿易目標と最小費用経路が乖離する可能性も示唆される。
English
A multi-model intercomparison (TIAM-UCL and MESSAGEix) of global hydrogen trade across six Paris-aligned 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios. Trade is essential to scale the hydrogen economy: intra-regional pipelines reach 3–22 EJ/yr by 2050, while international liquid hydrogen trade emerges in 2050–2060 at 1–6 EJ/yr (5–10% of supply). Regional trade ambitions may misalign with least-cost pathways, requiring faster infrastructure and stronger international coordination.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本の水素基本戦略や水素サプライチェーン構想、GX推進法下の水素投資の妥当性を国際モデル比較で検証する材料になる。域内パイプライン中心の示唆は、液化水素・MCH等の海上輸送前提の日本戦略への示唆が大きい。
In the global GX context
Adds cross-model, Paris-aligned evidence on hydrogen trade scale and structure to global transition-finance and energy-transition debates, informing national hydrogen strategies and cross-border infrastructure investment under ISSB-era transition planning.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:水素貿易の多モデル不確実性と域内・国際貿易の構造差を定量化した基準研究として活用できる。
🏢実務担当者:水素調達・サプライチェーン投資の際、域内パイプラインと国際海上輸送の規模・時期の見通しを経営判断に反映できる。
🏛政策担当者:各国水素貿易戦略と最小費用経路の乖離を踏まえ、国際政策調整とインフラ整備の優先順位を検討すべき。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Hydrogen is expected to facilitate global energy system transitions, particularly in hard-to-decarbonise industry and transport sectors. Hydrogen trade can introduce additional flexibility into the energy system by enabling the global movement of energy from regions with abundant and cheap electricity generation. Despite the growing policy interest in hydrogen trade, the future scale and structure of the trade market remain highly uncertain, especially given uncertainties in supply, demand, infrastructure, and policy development. While several models have explored hydrogen supply, demand, and transport costs, systematic assessments of global trade that integrate wider energy system dynamics and cross-model uncertainty remain limited. We develop a multi-model scenario intercomparison approach using two energy system models, TIAM-UCL and MESSAGEix, to investigate prospects for the global hydrogen trade market in 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenario pathways. We implement six Paris-aligned scenarios under a harmonised scenario protocol across both models, incorporating variations in hydrogen trade availability and trade policy targets derived from announced national hydrogen trade strategies. Our results indicate that hydrogen trade is essential to support the growth of the hydrogen economy needed to achieve Paris-aligned climate targets. Global hydrogen trade is likely to develop primarily through intra-regional pipeline networks, reaching 3–22 EJ/yr by 2050 across models and scenarios, while international liquid hydrogen trade emerges in 2050–2060 and averages 1–6 EJ/yr (5–10% of total hydrogen supply). This makes cross-border infrastructure and regional coordination critical for hydrogen market development. Moreover, results further suggest possible misalignment between regional trade ambitions and least-cost pathways. Unlocking the full potential of hydrogen trade will require faster infrastructure deployment, stronger international policy coordination, and better alignment between national strategies and global decarbonisation pathways.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- Zenodo https://zenodo.org/records/24158171first seen 2026-11-13 04:14:44
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