The Impact of Gradual Expectation Shocks from the EU CBAM on Exports and Carbon Emissions in China's High-Carbon Industries: A Multi-Period DID Model
EU国境炭素調整メカニズム（CBAM）の段階的期待ショックが中国の高炭素産業の輸出と炭素排出に与える影響：多期間DIDモデル (AI 翻訳)
Yifan Wu
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、EU CBAMの段階的期待ショック（弱い期待期2018年、強い期待期2021年）が中国の高炭素産業の対EU輸出と炭素排出に与える影響を、多期間DIDモデルを用いて分析。結果、強い期待期では弱い期よりも輸出抑制効果と排出削減効果が有意に強く、炭素強度が正の調整効果を持つことを示した。政策の期待形成が重要であることを実証。
English
This study uses a multi-period DID model to examine the gradual impact of EU CBAM expectation shocks (weak in 2018, strong in 2021) on exports to Europe and carbon emissions in China's five high-carbon sectors. It finds that the strong expectation phase yields significantly greater inhibitory effects on exports and emission reductions than the weak phase, with carbon intensity positively moderating the effects. The paper provides empirical evidence on the role of policy expectations in carbon border adjustments.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本企業もEU向け輸出においてCBAMの段階的影響を受ける可能性があり、本論文の期待フェーズの分析は自社の排出削減投資のタイミングを考える上で示唆に富む。
In the global GX context
This paper offers novel empirical evidence on how differing levels of expectation about CBAM (weak vs. strong) produce gradient effects on exports and emissions, with implications for policymakers designing phased-in carbon border measures and for firms anticipating regulatory changes.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a clear empirical framework for analyzing the impact of policy expectation phases in carbon border mechanisms.
🏢実務担当者:Helps export-oriented firms in high-carbon sectors understand how the timing and strength of CBAM expectations affect market access and emission reduction strategies.
🏛政策担当者:Offers evidence that phased implementation with explicit expectations can modulate economic and environmental outcomes.
📄 Abstract（原文）
The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is marked by a gradual policy shock with poor expectations in 2018 and high expectations in 2021. The study is based on 2018-2022 and uses a multi period difference-in-differences (DID) model to examine the gradient impacts of gradual CBAM expectations on exports to Europe and carbon emissions in the five major high-carbon sectors in China and also tests the moderating effects of carbon intensity. The results indicate that the CBAM expectation shock exerts a significant gradient-dependent inhibitory effect on exports to Europe from high-carbon industries, as well as a significant gradient-dependent emission-reduction effect on carbon emissions. The effects during the strong expectation phase are significantly stronger than those during the weak expectation phase, and carbon intensity plays a significant positive moderating role. This study fills a research gap regarding policy expectation phases and provides empirical evidence for China's high-carbon industries to address carbon barriers and advance low-carbon transformation.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.54254/2754-1169/2026.gt34399first seen 2026-06-18 05:49:59
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