制度設計が排出量取引制度における炭素価格シグナルと国境措置を形成する
Institutional design shapes carbon price signals and border measures in emissions trading systems (原題)
Carlos Alexandre Gama, Eduardo Souza, Leonardo Maues, Marcio Kahn
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、排出量取引制度（ETS）における炭素価格が短期的な排出削減成果ではなく、制度的希少性と期待を反映することを論じる。EU ETSの事例から、価格上昇は長期的な希少性期待の変化に起因し、国境措置の出現を促したと分析。新興市場では初期価格は移行期の状況を反映し、長期的な政策厳格性の弱いシグナルとなる。企業は初期価格に基づく戦略決定のリスクを認識すべきと示唆。
English
This paper argues that carbon prices in ETSs primarily reflect institutional scarcity and expectations rather than short-term emissions outcomes. Through comparative analysis of the EU ETS and emerging systems, it shows that price increases in the EU followed changes in long-term scarcity expectations and contributed to border measures. Early prices in emerging markets provide weak signals of long-term policy stringency, implying firms should not anchor investment decisions on early price observations.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本では2026年度からのGXリーグ排出量取引本格稼働を控え、炭素価格のシグナル解釈は企業の戦略立案に直結する。本論文の知見は、初期価格の過度な解釈を避け、制度設計の信頼性と将来の規制強化を見据えた対応の重要性を示す。
In the global GX context
As carbon pricing expands globally, this paper provides a framework for interpreting price signals in both mature and emerging ETSs. It highlights the role of institutional credibility and border measures, relevant for policymakers designing carbon markets and firms assessing transition risks.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a theoretical framework linking institutional design to carbon price signals, useful for ETS research.
🏢実務担当者:Warns against anchoring investment decisions on early carbon prices; advises anticipating tighter future constraints.
🏛政策担当者:Emphasizes the importance of credible cap trajectories and governance stability in shaping carbon price meaning.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Carbon pricing has become a central instrument of climate policy as emissions trading systems (ETSs) expand globally and inform long-term decarbonization decisions. Yet interpreting what carbon prices actually signal remains challenging, particularly in the early phases of market development, when observed prices are often used to infer policy ambition and future compliance costs.This paper argues that carbon prices in emissions trading systems primarily reflect institutional scarcity and expectations rather than short-term emissions outcomes. Through a comparative and interpretive analysis of a mature and an emerging system, we interpret price dynamics as evolving through institutional design choices and credibility-building reforms that shape expectations about future constraint. The EU ETS literature indicates that sustained price increases followed changes in long-term scarcity expectations, while rising prices progressively constrained traditional leakage instruments and contributed to the emergence of border measures as structural complements to carbon pricing. In contrast, early price levels in emerging systems are expected to reflect transitional conditions and evolvinggovernance, providing weak signals of long-term policy stringency.These findings imply that carbon prices should be interpreted as signals of institutional trajectories rather than static indicators of ambition or compliance cost. For policymakers, this underscores the role of credible cap trajectories and governance stability in shaping price meaning over time. For firms, it highlights the risks of anchoring strategic and investment decisions on early price observations and the need to anticipate tighter future constraints as carbon markets mature.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openaire https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.7193095first seen 2026-09-01 04:50:31 · last seen 2026-09-21 04:26:40
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