持続可能性への移行を航海する：海運業界へのグリーン成長とポスト成長の含意
Navigating sustainability transitions: Implications of Green Growth and Post-growth pathways for the maritime transport industry (原題)
Lass-Ovens J, Schmidt J, Specht P, Mihanović MJ
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、海運業界が直面する気候変動や地政学的不確実性の中で、グリーン成長とポスト成長という2つの持続可能性移行経路が国際貿易と海運に与える影響をシナリオ分析で評価する。両経路とも化石燃料からの段階的移行を示し、再生可能エネルギーや代替燃料、循環経済物流などの新たな機会を創出する。ポスト成長経路では、より顕著な変化が予想され、将来の競争力は貨物量成長よりも専門サービスや産業統合に依存する。
English
This paper uses scenario analysis to evaluate how Green Growth and Post-growth sustainability pathways could reshape global trade and the maritime transport industry. Both pathways imply a gradual shift away from fossil fuels, transforming cargo structures and creating opportunities in renewable energy, alternative fuels, and circular economy logistics. Under Post-growth, changes are more pronounced due to lower consumption and regionalization. Future competitiveness will depend on specialized services and industrial integration rather than cargo volume growth.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本は海運大国であり、国際海運の脱炭素化は重要な政策課題。本論文のシナリオ思考は、日本企業の長期投資戦略や国土交通省の政策立案に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
As a major shipping nation, Japan's maritime industry faces pressure to decarbonize. This paper's scenario analysis offers strategic insights for global shipping firms and policymakers navigating the energy transition, complementing IMO's GHG reduction efforts.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a structured comparison of Green Growth and Post-growth scenarios for maritime transport, useful for sustainability transition research.
🏢実務担当者:Shipping companies can use scenario insights to inform long-term fleet and business model diversification strategies.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the need for scenario-based policy to support maritime decarbonization and resilience.
📄 Abstract（原文）
<title>Abstract</title> <p>The maritime industry operates in an increasingly uncertain environment shaped by climate change, geopolitical developments and technological innovation. This paper examines how Green Growth and Post-growth could reshape global trade and consequently the maritime transport industry. The topic is important because current maritime business models remain strongly linked to growth in cargo volumes and throughput. Using scenario analysis, this paper evaluates two sustainability transition pathways in terms of their implications for cargo structures, trade patterns, port activities, and strategic development priorities. A comparison with a conventional growth scenario shows that both pathways imply a gradual shift away from fossil fuels, transforming cargo structures while creating new opportunities in renewable energy, alternative fuels, critical raw materials, and circular economy logistics. Under a Post-growth pathway, these developments are expected to be more pronounced, driven by lower material consumption, shorter supply chains, and greater regionalisation. Future competitiveness under sustainability transition pathways is likely to depend increasingly on specialised services, industrial integration, and support for the energy transition rather than cargo volume growth alone. Given the sector’s long investment cycles and capital intensity, policy and industry strategies should embrace scenario thinking to reduce risks, identify opportunities, and strengthen long-term resilience.</p>
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- Research Square https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-10627601/v1first seen 2026-09-05 04:47:58 · last seen 2026-09-18 04:20:59
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