Pathways Toward Carbon Peaking and Deep Decarbonization in the Yellow River Basin: Evidence from Tapio Decoupling, GTWR, and Scenario Analysis
黄河川流域における炭素ピークアウトと深い脱炭素化への経路：Tapioデカップリング、GTWR、シナリオ分析からのエビデンス (AI 翻訳)
Huilin Xin, Kun Li, Xiaoyu Ren, Weijun Zhao, Zhaoli Du, Weichen Li, Hang Zhou
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
黄河川流域95都市（2010-2022）のデータとLEAP-YRBモデルを用い、経済成長とCO2排出のデカップリング状況を分析。2022年には62都市が弱いデカップリングに移行。政策主導シナリオでは2030年頃に約33.6億トンでピークを迎えるが、完全なカーボンニュートラル達成には追加対策が必要と示唆。
English
Using data from 95 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin (2010-2022) and the LEAP-YRB model, this study analyzes the decoupling of economic growth from CO2 emissions. By 2022, 62 cities achieved weak decoupling. Under a policy-driven scenario, emissions peak around 2030 at ~3.36 billion tons, but full carbon neutrality requires additional sinks or negative-emission technologies.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国黄河川流域の事例だが、地域別脱炭素経路の分析手法やデカップリング指標は、日本の都道府県別気候計画やSSBJ開示における地域別リスク評価に応用可能。産業構造転換や特許の効果が文脈依存的である点は、日本企業の技術投資戦略にも示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This study provides robust empirical evidence on regional decarbonization pathways, relevant for global disclosure frameworks like ISSB and TCFD that require companies to assess transition risks across geographies. The GTWR method captures spatial-temporal heterogeneity, offering a template for analyzing emission trends in diverse regions worldwide.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:The integration of Tapio decoupling, GTWR, and LEAP scenario modeling provides a replicable methodology for analyzing regional decarbonization pathways.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the need for policy-driven interventions beyond business-as-usual to achieve carbon peaking and net-zero targets, with specific insights for regional planning.
📄 Abstract（原文）
In the context of China’s carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, clarifying whether the Yellow River Basin can achieve a decoupling of economic growth from carbon emissions and sustain regional development through deep decarbonization is critical to both ecological protection and high-quality development of the region. This study integrates the Tapio decoupling model, the geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model, and an author-developed LEAP-YRB v5 macro-sectoral hybrid model to examine 95 prefecture-level cities from 2010 to 2022 and to project energy consumption and carbon emissions for the nine YRB provincial-level regions from 2022 to 2060. The results show that: (1) the urban decoupling status fluctuated among expansive coupling, strong decoupling, and weak decoupling, with weak decoupling becoming dominant and increasing to 62 cities in 2022; (2) per capita GDP and urbanization tended to increase the decoupling index and therefore inhibited decoupling, whereas more intensive construction-land use promoted decoupling, and industrial structure upgrading and green patents showed context-dependent effects; and (3) the basin cannot peak its emissions under the business-as-usual scenario, while the policy-driven scenario peaks at approximately 3.357 billion tons of CO2 around 2030. Under the carbon-neutrality-oriented scenario, net emissions decline substantially to 825 million tons by 2060, indicating deep decarbonization but not full carbon neutrality. Full neutrality would require additional carbon sinks, cross-regional clean-electricity integration, stronger power-sector decarbonization, or negative-emission technologies beyond the endogenous measures represented in the model.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- crossref https://doi.org/10.3390/su18157606first seen 2026-07-28 06:20:23
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