Carbon Pricing Without the Tax: Investment Behavior Under Emerging Market Signals in Indonesia
課税なき炭素価格：インドネシアにおける新興市場シグナル下の投資行動 (AI 翻訳)
null Kasno, Lina Nurlaela
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、炭素税の延期と排出量取引制度（ETS）・IDXCarbon取引所の導入を組み合わせたインドネシアのハイブリッド炭素価格政策が、企業の投資行動に与える影響を分析。ETSやCBAMへの高いエクスポージャーを持つ企業ほど環境投資を増加させ、政策シグナルが規制執行前でも投資を誘発することを実証した。政策の遅延や不確実性が投資の規模とペースを抑制する一方、信頼性のある炭素価格シグナルの重要性を示唆。
English
This study examines how Indonesia's hybrid carbon pricing strategy—combining a postponed carbon tax with an ETS and the IDXCarbon exchange—affects firm-level investment behavior. Results show that firms with higher exposure to ETS and CBAM significantly increased environmental CapEx, with marked shifts following policy announcements. The findings indicate that credible carbon pricing signals can drive investment even before full enforcement, though delays and uncertainty moderate the response.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本でも2023年度からGXリーグによる排出量取引が始まり、炭素価格シグナルの実効性が問われている。本論文は、規制執行前のシグナルが企業行動に与える影響を実証しており、日本のGX政策（GX-ETS、カーボンプライシング）の設計や企業の投資判断に示唆を与える。特に、政策の信頼性と予見可能性の重要性を強調する点は、日本の制度設計にも当てはまる。
In the global GX context
This paper provides empirical evidence from an emerging market on how carbon pricing signals influence corporate investment before full regulatory enforcement. It offers insights for global GX contexts, particularly for countries designing hybrid carbon pricing mechanisms (e.g., ETS with carbon tax delays) and for understanding the role of market-based signals like CBAM in driving decarbonization investment. The findings are relevant to the ongoing discourse on carbon pricing effectiveness and the design of credible policy frameworks.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides empirical evidence on the investment effects of carbon pricing signals in an emerging market, contributing to the literature on policy credibility and corporate behavior.
🏢実務担当者:Highlights how firms can use early carbon pricing signals (ETS, CBAM exposure) to guide environmental investment decisions, even before full regulation.
🏛政策担当者:Demonstrates that credible carbon pricing frameworks can mobilize private investment, but delays and uncertainty dampen effects; relevant for designing predictable carbon pricing policies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Indonesia has adopted a hybrid carbon pricing strategy, combining a postponed carbon tax with operational instruments such as the Emissions Trading System (ETS) and the IDXCarbon exchange. This study examines whether these early pricing signals have already shaped firm-level investment behavior before the formal enforcement of the carbon tax. The methodology incorporates firm level variables such as ETS exposure, carbon intensity, and export dependence on the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), while controlling for financial indicators like profitability, size, and leverage. Key results indicate that firms with higher exposure to ETS and CBAM related markets significantly increased their environmental CapEx during the observed period. Event analysis reveals marked investment shifts following the launch of IDXCarbon and the government's carbon tax announcements. These findings suggest that Indonesian firms are responsive to carbon pricing signals even before full regulatory enforcement, especially when those signals are perceived as credible and market relevant. However, policy delays and uncertainty have moderated the pace and scale of investment responses. The discussion highlights the importance of internal carbon pricing, sectoral heterogeneity, governance dynamics, and comparisons with early phase ETS experiences in the EU, China, and Korea. The study concludes that clear and credible carbon pricing frameworks are essential for mobilizing private sector investment in sustainability. Indonesia must enhance the regulatory predictability and institutional strength of its carbon pricing system to fully realize its climate and investment objectives.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openaire https://doi.org/10.61978/summa.v3i4.889first seen 2026-05-05 19:06:42
gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。