中国の貿易体化炭素排出の移転パターンと駆動要因：MRIOとLMDIに基づく実証分析
The Transfer Patterns and Driving Factors of China’s Trade-Embodied Carbon Emissions: An Empirical Analysis Based on MRIO and LMDI (原題)
HaoMing Chen, XiaoHong Wang, Zunli Dai, Qiujing Zhang, Ying Xue
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
EORA多地域投入産出モデルとLMDI分解を用い、2010-2020年の中国の貿易体化炭素排出を分析。生産側炭素強度は低下したが電力・ガス・水道部門は高炭素ロックイン。中国は純輸出型で、国際炭素移転は新興国中心へ再編。排出は「規模駆動・技術相殺」型で、構造効果が新たに正に転じた。
English
Using EORA MRIO and LMDI, this study analyzes China's trade-embodied carbon emissions (2010-2020). Production-side carbon intensity declined but the electricity, gas, and water sector shows high-carbon lock-in. China remains a net exporter, with carbon transfer shifting toward emerging economies. Emissions follow a scale-driven, technology-offsetting pattern, with a newly positive structure effect.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のGX実務では、サプライチェーン排出（Scope 3）の算定と国際炭素移転の理解が重要。中国からの輸入に依存する日本企業にとって、貿易体化炭素の動向は調達先の排出削減リスク評価に直結する。また、生産ベースと消費ベースの排出責任の議論は、日本のカーボンフットプリント制度設計にも示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to global carbon accounting scholarship by quantifying trade-embodied emissions and carbon transfer patterns, relevant for Scope 3 disclosure and supply chain decarbonization. The shift toward South-South carbon transfer highlights challenges for international climate policy and corporate value chain accounting under ISSB and CSRD frameworks.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides empirical evidence on carbon transfer patterns and decomposition methods applicable to other regions.
🏢実務担当者:Useful for assessing supply chain carbon risks and identifying high-carbon sectors in trade partners.
🏛政策担当者:Informs carbon accounting reform and sector-differentiated mitigation strategies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Using the EORA multi-regional input-output model, this study estimates the embodied carbon emissions in China's trade across 26 sectors from 2010 to 2020, dividing partners into developed and emerging/developing economies. The LMDI method decomposes changes in production- and consumption-based emissions (2001-2020) into technology, structure, and scale effects. Results show: (1) China's production-side carbon intensity declined overall but with marked sectoral divergence—manufacturing intensity dropped sharply while the electricity, gas, and water (EGW) sector remained at persistently high levels, revealing a high-carbon lock-in effect. (2) China consistently acts as a net exporter of trade-embodied carbon, with net exports concentrated in four sectors; by contrast, EGW exhibits a large carbon deficit, indicating additional carbon responsibility under production-based accounting. (3) The international carbon transfer pattern is restructuring: consumption-side sources have shifted from developed- to emerging-economy dominance, and production-side flows increasingly go to emerging economies, moving from a North-South to a North-South and South-South pattern. (4) Carbon emissions follow a "scale-driven, technology-offsetting" mode; the weakening scale effect enables peaking, but diminishing technology returns and the newly positive structure effect call for structural optimization. Sector-differentiated mitigation, carbon accounting reform, and green supply chains are suggested.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://www.e3s-conferences.org/articles/e3sconf/pdf/2026/52/e3sconf_icemee2026_02008.pdffirst seen 2026-08-20 05:00:43 · last seen 2026-09-22 04:54:09
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