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外生的エネルギーショックが広東省電力システムのカーボンニュートラル経路に与える影響：LEAP-NEMO結合モデルアプローチ

Impacts of Exogenous Energy Shocks on the Carbon Neutrality Pathways of Guangdong Power System: A Coupled LEAP-NEMO Modeling Approach (原題)

Zhu Guangyao, Caixia Yang, Yao Xiao, Mingze Lei, Supannika Wattana, Buncha Wattana

Energies📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-09-05#エネルギー転換Origin: CN対象セクター: power
DOI: 10.3390/en19174206
原典: https://doi.org/10.3390/en19174206

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本研究は、広東省の電力システムを対象に、LEAP-NEMO結合モデルを用いて外生的エネルギーショック（化石燃料価格変動、再生可能エネルギー変動、需要成長）がカーボンニュートラル移行に与える影響を分析。COMシナリオでは2030年に排出ピーク、2055年にネットゼロを達成するが、再生可能エネルギー変動は累積排出量を73.7%増加させ、需要成長は2.04倍に達する。系統のレジリエンス向上には、エネルギー貯蔵、原子力、柔軟性資源、需要側管理の協調的導入が必要と結論。

English

This study analyzes the impact of exogenous energy shocks on Guangdong's power system carbon neutrality using a coupled LEAP-NEMO model. Under the COM scenario, emissions peak by 2030 and reach net-zero by 2055. Renewable energy volatility increases cumulative emissions by 73.7%, and demand growth doubles them, threatening the 2060 target. The study highlights the need for coordinated deployment of storage, nuclear, flexible resources, and demand-side management to enhance system resilience.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本の電力システムは再生可能エネルギー導入拡大に伴い、需給変動やコスト増加への対応が課題。本研究成果は、日本の電力系統のレジリエンス評価や、エネルギー貯蔵・需要側管理の政策設計に示唆を与える。特に、再生可能エネルギーの変動性がカーボンニュートラル達成に与えるリスクを定量的に示しており、日本のエネルギー基本計画や系統整備計画の策定に参考となる。

In the global GX context

This study provides a robust modeling framework for assessing power system resilience under energy shocks, relevant to global energy transition planning. It offers quantitative evidence on how renewable volatility and demand growth can derail carbon neutrality, informing grid planning and policy in regions with high renewable penetration. The findings support the need for integrated resource planning and demand-side flexibility, aligning with global best practices for reliable and low-carbon power systems.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides a coupled LEAP-NEMO modeling approach to assess power system resilience under energy shocks, offering a methodological template for similar studies.

🏢実務担当者:Highlights key risks (renewable volatility, demand growth) that power utilities and grid operators must manage to ensure reliable carbon-neutral transitions.

🏛政策担当者:Demonstrates the need for coordinated policies on storage, nuclear, and demand-side management to mitigate risks to carbon neutrality targets.

📄 Abstract（原文）

In the context of global energy transition and climate change, exogenous energy shocks (such as energy price volatility, renewable energy uncertainty, and increasing power demand) pose growing challenges to power system carbon neutrality. However, existing studies mainly focus on optimizing emission-reduction pathways while neglecting system resilience under energy shocks. This study applies a coupled LEAP-NEMO model for Guangdong Province, integrating demand growth, generation evolution, dispatch optimization, system costs, and carbon constraints. Five scenarios (BAS, COM, COM_ES1, COM_ES2, and COM_ES3) are established to assess the impacts of exogenous energy shocks on carbon-neutral transition pathways. The results show that under COM scenario, Guangdong’s power system’s carbon emissions will peak by 2030 and reach net-zero by 2055. Different energy shocks produce substantially different effects on the carbon-neutral transition. Fossil fuel price shocks (COM_ES1) have limited impacts, with cumulative emissions changing by only 2.1% relative to COM. Renewable energy volatility (COM_ES2) reduces wind and solar generation and raises cumulative emissions by 73.7%, preventing carbon neutrality by 2060. Demand growth (COM_ES3) poses the most severe challenge, with cumulative emissions reaching 2.04 times those of the COM scenario. Resilience analysis further shows that renewable energy volatility causes the largest deterioration in reserve margin performance, while demand growth has the strongest effects on emissions and cost performance. These results identify renewable generation uncertainty and electricity demand growth as the key risks to a smooth carbon-neutral transition, highlighting the need for coordinated deployment of energy storage, nuclear power, flexible resources, and demand-side management.

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