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サステナビリティの不確実性とグリーンファイナンスの脆弱性：グリーンボンドからのブートストラップ・ローリング・ウィンドウと分位点間回帰による証拠

Sustainability uncertainty and the fragility of green finance: bootstrap rolling-window and quantile-on-quantile evidence from green bond (原題)

Ali Nawaz, Chiwei Su

Spanish Journal of Finance and Accounting / Revista Española de Financiación y Contabilidad📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-01-21#気候金融経営インパクト: 資金調達対象セクター: finance
DOI: 10.1080/02102412.2026.2619316
原典: https://doi.org/10.1080/02102412.2026.2619316

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本論文は、ESG不確実性がグリーンボンド市場の成長に与える影響を、ブートストラップ・ローリング・ウィンドウ因果性と分位点間回帰を用いて分析。構造変化を考慮すると、ESG不確実性の高まりがグリーンボンドの情報価値を低下させ、投資家の信頼を損なうことを示す。堅牢な開示と調和のとれたタクソノミー、政策の一貫性が重要と結論。

English

This paper examines the impact of ESG uncertainty on green bond market growth using bootstrap rolling-window causality and quantile-on-quantile regression. It finds that heightened ESG uncertainty erodes the informational value of green bonds, dampening investor confidence. Robust disclosure, harmonized taxonomies, and policy consistency are essential for green finance resilience.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本では、グリーンボンド市場の拡大とSSBJ開示基準の導入が進む中、ESG不確実性が投資家行動に与える影響を示す本研究成果は、日本の発行体や投資家にとって示唆に富む。政策の一貫性と開示の質が市場の信頼性向上に寄与することを示唆。

In the global GX context

Globally, this paper contributes to the literature on green finance resilience, highlighting the role of disclosure quality and policy consistency in mitigating ESG-related risks. It offers empirical evidence relevant to ISSB and CSRD implementation, emphasizing the need for harmonized taxonomies to support green bond market stability.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides empirical evidence on the time-varying and quantile-based effects of ESG uncertainty on green bond markets, useful for further research on green finance dynamics.

🏢実務担当者:Highlights the importance of robust disclosure and policy consistency for maintaining investor confidence in green bonds, informing corporate green financing strategies.

🏛政策担当者:Emphasizes the need for harmonized taxonomies and consistent policies to strengthen green finance resilience against ESG-related risks.

📄 Abstract（原文）

ABSTRACT The emergence of green finance, and especially green bonds, has been central to funding the global transition towards sustainability. However, its development is becoming more susceptible to the uncertainties within environmental, social, and governance (ESG) framework. This research applies bootstrap rolling-window causality along with quantile-on-quantile regression methods to examine the time-varying and quantile-based influence of sustainability uncertainty on the promotion and growth of green finance. Empirical results show no stable predictive link in the full sample, but significant time-varying effects emerge once structural breaks are considered. Heightened ESG uncertainty erodes the informational value of the green bond signal, dampening investors’ confidence in green assets. Furthermore, quantile-on-quantile regression results also confirm the robustness of our findings. The results highlight that robust disclosure, harmonised taxonomies, and policy consistency are essential to strengthen green finance resilience against ESG-related risks.

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