ウクライナにおけるバイオメタン市場統合のシナリオベース評価：原料、インフラ、脱炭素化

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:農業系バイオマスから再生ガスへの転換を、原料・技術・制度・市場を統合したシナリオ手法で分析する枠組みを提供する。

🏢実務担当者:EU向けバイオメタン供給や原産保証・持続可能性認証への対応を検討する企業にとって、投資規模と制度要件の目安となる。

🏛政策担当者:再生ガスの国境取引と認証制度の調和を設計する際、投資条件と政策調整の重要性を示す事例として参考になる。

Biomethane production from agricultural residues and livestock waste offers Ukraine a strategic pathway to strengthen energy security, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and integrate renewable gases into the European energy system. This study develops and evaluates three scenarios for the Ukrainian biomethane market under European integration: conservative, baseline, and innovation-driven integration. The scenarios differ in investment intensity, public support, regulatory alignment with EU requirements, deployment of anaerobic digestion and biogas upgrading technologies, sustainability certification, and access to domestic and cross-border gas infrastructure. An integrated scenario framework combines agricultural feedstock availability, technological readiness, institutional conditions, market integration, and environmental effects. The results indicate that Ukraine has substantial potential to become an important producer and supplier of sustainable biomethane to the European Union because of its large agricultural resource base, existing gas infrastructure, and geographical proximity to EU markets (projected production in 2030 of 0.26–0.88 billion m3/year, required capital expenditure ranging from EUR 360 million to EUR 1.51 billion, and emission reductions ranging from 443.6 to 649.8 thousand t CO2-eq/year under the conservative scenario, from 870.2 to 1274.6 thousand t CO2-eq/year under the baseline scenario, and from 1464.1 to 2144.6 thousand t CO2-eq/year under the innovation-driven integration scenario). The innovation-driven integration scenario provides the strongest prospects for increasing biomethane output, accelerating the modernisation of biomass conversion systems, expanding grid injection and cross-border trade, substituting fossil natural gas, and reducing emissions from agriculture and energy use. However, its implementation depends on stable investment conditions, transparent guarantees of origin, harmonised sustainability criteria, and coordinated energy and agricultural policies. This study contributes an interdisciplinary scenario-based approach that links biosystems engineering, renewable energy conversion, energy system analysis, and policy design. The findings support strategic planning for biomethane infrastructure, investment prioritisation, and the integration of Ukraine’s agricultural bioenergy potential into a circular and low-carbon European energy system.

• crossref https://doi.org/10.3390/en19204759first seen 2026-10-16 06:17:08 · last seen 2026-10-23 06:36:44
• scopus https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/105054805052first seen 2026-11-03 05:52:02 · last seen 2026-11-06 05:59:11