Assessing China’s afforestation potential under multiple constraints: Carbon sequestration, costs, and social carbon benefits
複数の制約下における中国の植林可能性の評価：炭素隔離、費用、社会的炭素便益 (AI 翻訳)
Yuan Cao, Dominik Sperlich, Rasoul Yousefpour, Deyu Zhong, Marc Hanewinkel
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
中国の2060年カーボンニュートラル目標における植林の現実的可能性を、土地利用・生態・政策制約を考慮して評価。理論上の適地は111〜118Mhaだが、政策制約を除くと70〜81Mhaに減少。LPJ-GUESSモデルにより、2100年までに累積炭素吸収量は4.86〜9.59PgCと推定。費用便益分析では、社会的便益が費用を上回るが、地域差への補助金最適化が必要。
English
This study assesses China's realistic afforestation potential under ecological, policy, and economic constraints. The theoretically suitable area is 111-118 Mha, but after excluding policy-set-aside land, it reduces to 70-81 Mha. Using the LPJ-GUESS model, cumulative carbon sink gains by 2100 are estimated at 4.86-9.59 PgC. Cost-benefit analysis shows social benefits exceed costs, but differentiated subsidies are needed for less suitable regions.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国の植林による炭素隔離の可能性と費用便益を定量的に示し、日本の森林吸収源対策やJ-クレジット制度の設計に示唆を与える。特に、政策制約と経済性を考慮した現実的な吸収量評価は、日本の長期脱炭素戦略の参考となる。
In the global GX context
This study provides a rigorous assessment of afforestation as a nature-based solution, relevant to global climate policy under the Paris Agreement. It highlights the trade-offs between carbon sequestration, land-use displacement, and economic costs, informing international frameworks like the IPCC and national climate strategies.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a comprehensive framework for evaluating afforestation potential with multiple constraints, useful for land-use and carbon cycle modeling.
🏢実務担当者:Offers insights into the economic viability and policy design of afforestation projects, relevant for carbon offset programs and land-use planning.
🏛政策担当者:Informs national climate strategies on the realistic potential and costs of afforestation, emphasizing the need for differentiated subsidies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract As one of the world's largest carbon emitters, China has pledged carbon neutrality by 2060, with afforestation as a key nature-based solution. However, its practical implementation faces complex ecological, political, and economic challenges. Here, using four SSP pathways and the LUH2 land-use dataset, we show that China's realistic afforestation potential is limited. The theoretically suitable afforestation area, defined as land that is both convertible to forest and naturally suitable for tree growth, is about 111.41–118.39 Mha. After excluding 30.00–34.60 Mha set aside for ecoregion policy and 3.49–11.43 Mha for cropland protection policy, the remaining afforestation area is 70.08–81.03 Mha, increasing China's total forest area to 309.45–339.97 Mha by 2100. Using the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, we estimate cumulative carbon sink gains at 4.86–9.59 PgC by 2100, with afforestation contributing an additional 0.48–2.82 PgC. At a 2% social discount rate, afforestation incurs 97.5–139.3 billion USD in implementation costs and 839.9–1198.8 billion USD in opportunity costs from land-use displacement, generates 903.8–976.4 billion USD in wood-product revenues, and delivers 468.7–2739.4 billion USD in social carbon benefits. Our study reveals that while afforestation is economically viable at the macro level, the marginalization of new afforestation to less suitable regions necessitates differentiated financial subsidies and optimized management to meet long-term climate targets.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae996bfirst seen 2026-08-15 04:56:20
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