アンゴラ電力転換のシナリオ：発電容量・電力生産・環境持続可能性
Scenarios for Angola’s Electricity Transition: Generation Capacity, Electricity Production, and Environmental Sustainability (原題)
Afonso António, José De Pombo, S.J.P.S. Mariano, Rosário Calado
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
アンゴラの電力部門を2024〜2050年にわたり3つの転換経路（ベースライン・グリーン転換・制限的発展）で分析。グリーン転換では電力需要が283TWhに達し、水力が37〜51%を占める一方、太陽光が容量拡大の主役となり最大33%を占め、LCOEは19.2〜25.5EUR/MWhと最低水準。孤立した農村系統ではディーゼル・太陽光ハイブリッドが発電コストを50%以上削減し炭素強度も低減する。
English
Prospective multivariate analysis of Angola's power sector 2024–2050 across three transition pathways. Under Green Transition, demand reaches 283 TWh; hydropower supplies 37–51% while solar leads capacity expansion (up to 33%) at the lowest LCOE (19.2–25.5 EUR/MWh). Diesel-solar hybrids in rural grids cut costs over 50% and lower carbon intensity.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
新興国における再エネ主導の電力転換と分散型ハイブリッドの費用対効果を示す事例。日本の企業・金融機関がアフリカの脱炭素インフラ案件やトランジション金融を検討する際の参照材料となりうる。
In the global GX context
Adds empirical evidence on solar-led, cost-effective power transition pathways in emerging economies, relevant to global transition finance and just-transition debates where grid decarbonization in developing markets is a growing disclosure and investment focus.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:新興国電力システムの最適化モデリングと感度分析の手法・結果を参照できる。
🏢実務担当者:アフリカ新興市場での再エネ・分散型電源事業のコスト構造と投資機会の把握に有用。
🏛政策担当者:途上国の電力転換政策設計における太陽光大量導入とハイブリッド系統の有効性を示す。
📄 Abstract（原文）
This paper presents a prospective multivariate analysis of Angola’s electricity sector over the period 2024–2050, assessing the economic, demographic, and environmental impacts of three energy transition pathways: Baseline, Green Transition, and Restricted Development. Using energy system optimization models complemented by parametric robustness tests, the study projects a rapid increase in electricity demand, driven by population growth, with Angola’s population expected to reach approximately 86 million by 2050. Under the Green Transition Scenario, electricity demand reaches 283 TWh, corresponding to a per capita consumption of 3350 kWh. Although large-scale hydropower remains the backbone of the electricity system, accounting 37–51% of total generation, solar photovoltaics emerge as the leading technology for capacity expansion, accounting for up to 33% of installed capacity and achieving the lowest levelized cost of electricity, ranging from 19.2 to 25.5 EUR/MWh. By contrast, diesel generation and new hydropower plants exhibit substantially higher generation costs. In isolated rural grids, diesel–solar hybrid systems reduce electricity generation costs by more than 50% while significantly lowering carbon intensity. Sensitivity analysis shows that overall system costs are strongly influenced by the discount rate and macroeconomic assumptions but remain comparatively robust to technological uncertainties. These findings highlight the importance of large-scale solar deployment and decentralized hybrid systems as key strategies for achieving a cost-effective, low-carbon electricity transition in Angola.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/en19225416first seen 2026-11-13 04:50:06
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