Energy Transition and Carbon Emissions in NICs: Evidence from the CS-ARDL Approach and Dynamic ARDL Simulation

新興工業国におけるエネルギー転換と炭素排出：CS-ARDLアプローチと動的ARDLシミュレーションからの証拠 (AI 翻訳)

Rui Zhou

Energies📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-08-04#エネルギー転換Origin: CN対象セクター: power

DOI: 10.3390/en19153662

原典: https://doi.org/10.3390/en19153662

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

新興工業国（NICs）の1990〜2022年のパネルデータを用い、CS-ARDLと動的ARDLシミュレーションでエネルギー転換とCO2排出の関係を分析。EKC仮説は成立せず、再生可能エネルギーの比率向上が長期的なCO2削減に有効であることを示した。

English

Using panel data from NICs (1990-2022), this study applies CS-ARDL and dynamic ARDL simulations to examine the energy transition-CO2 emissions nexus. It finds the EKC hypothesis invalid, while higher renewable energy shares yield long-term CO2 mitigation.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本のGX政策（再生可能エネルギー導入拡大や炭素中立目標）に示唆を与えるが、NICsを対象とした実証であり、直接的な日本向け含意は限定的。日本のエネルギー転換研究との比較材料として有用。

In the global GX context

Contributes to global energy transition literature by providing evidence from NICs, complementing TCFD/ISSB-aligned disclosure frameworks with empirical backing for renewable energy policies.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:エネルギー転換と排出削減の実証分析手法（CS-ARDL）を学ぶ価値がある。

🏢実務担当者:再生可能エネルギー投資のCO2削減効果を裏付けるエビデンスとして活用可能。

🏛政策担当者:NICsにおける再生可能エネルギー促進政策の有効性を示す参考資料。

📄 Abstract（原文）

Newly Industrialized Countries (NICs) represent the most dynamic economic clusters globally and drive the marginal growth of global carbon emissions, rendering their carbon mitigation performance pivotal to delivering the climate targets pledged under the Paris Agreement. Grounded in the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, this study applies the cross-sectional augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) framework to the panel data from NICs for the 1990–2022 period and incorporates dynamic autoregressive distributed lag simulation methods to investigate the dynamic relationship between energy transition and CO2 emissions across these economies. The CS-ARDL estimation results suggest that the conventional inverted U-shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis is invalid under the conditions of cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity for NICs. Per capita GDP growth is found to exert a significant negative impact on CO2 emissions in these economies. In both the long and short run, rising per capita non-renewable energy consumption substantially increases CO2 emissions, whereas a higher share of renewable energy in total final energy consumption yields a significant CO2 mitigation effect. Estimations conducted via the Augmented Mean Group (AMG), Common Correlation Effect Mean Group (CCEMG), and Dynamic Common Correlation Effect Mean Group (DCCEMG) estimators yield consistent findings with the CS-ARDL model. Dynamic ARDL simulation results reveal that positive shocks to per capita non-renewable energy consumption and renewable energy share in total final energy consumption induce heterogeneous dynamic response trajectories of CO2 emissions across countries. Nevertheless, rising per capita non-renewable energy consumption triggers an overall sustained growth in CO2 emissions, while a higher proportion of renewable energy achieves long-term mitigation of CO2 emissions.

🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース

openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/en19153662first seen 2026-08-06 05:07:00

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