エクスサイチュCO2鉱物化：実験室科学と産業の現実を橋渡しする 第II部：技術経済性、ライフサイクル評価、市場主導の展開戦略

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:CO2鉱物化のコスト・LCA・展開経路の定量ベンチマークを提供する。

🏢実務担当者:セメント・骨材企業は製品市場とクレジット収益を組み合わせた事業性評価に活用できる。

🏛政策担当者:炭素除去調達・税制優遇の設計と、認証・MRV制度整備の根拠として参照可能。

Ex-situ CO2 mineralization is moving from laboratory demonstration toward early commercial deployment, but gigaton-scale implementation requires credible economics, favorable life-cycle performance, real product markets, and standards-based verification. This second part of a two-part review examines the techno-economic, environmental, market, policy, and certification dimensions of the technology. Processing costs for industrial-residue systems are approximately $30 to $80 per ton of CO2 on a cradle-to-gate basis for facilities colocated with the CO2 source, excluding CO2 capture and product credits, at a nominal 100 ktCO2/year scale and $0.08/kWh electricity; costs outside these boundary conditions differ substantially and are reported separately throughout. Revenue from carbonated aggregates, supplementary cementitious materials, precipitated calcium carbonate, and carbon-removal credits can offset a significant portion of these costs. Net carbon-removal efficiencies range from approximately 50% to 95% across pathways, a spread driven principally by feedstock activation demand and grid carbon intensity rather than by carbonation chemistry; residue-based systems integrating renewable energy typically achieve 75% to 95%, whereas activation-intensive natural silicate routes remain more energy sensitive. Commercial operators (CarbonFree, Fortera, Neustark, Greenore) stand at TRL 7–9 alongside earlier-stage ventures, with combined nameplate capacity of approximately 70–90 ktCO2/year and independently verified delivered volumes that are substantially lower. Construction materials are the primary near-term market, with demand for low-carbon aggregates and cement additives growing rapidly. A bottom-up buildup of operational and publicly announced projects places 2030 capacity at approximately 0.4–5 MtCO2/year. Reaching the 1–2 GtCO2/year that IPCC-consistent carbon-removal portfolios would assign to mineralization by 2050 requires sustained capacity growth of 38–43% per year for two decades and a cumulative capital of approximately $0.2–0.7 trillion for the mineralization system. Gigaton-scale deployment is therefore presented as a conditional scenario with explicitly stated preconditions, not as a forecast. Policy mechanisms, including enhanced 45Q credits, EU Innovation Fund support, and emerging carbon-removal procurement programs, are catalyzing investment.

• semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.energyfuels.6c02947first seen 2026-10-06 05:30:46