Coupled geophysical and technoeconomic growth constraints on geological carbon storage scaleup with an application to the UK
英国における地質学的二酸化炭素貯留の拡大に対する地球物理学および技術経済的成長制約の結合 (AI 翻訳)
Kivi. Iman R., Gao, Xiaowei, Krevor, Sam
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
地質学的CO2貯留は気候変動対策の鍵だが、拡大には技術経済的成長速度と地下物理的制約の両方が影響する。本稿では両方を統合したモデルを開発し、英国に適用。その結果、政府目標の175 Mt/年を達成可能で、累計で最大78 Gtの貯留が可能。ただし、地質的不確実性や浸透率の低下で資源量は減少する。
English
This study develops a modeling framework coupling techno-economic growth and geophysical limits to assess feasible CO2 storage scaleup trajectories. Applied to the UK, it finds that offshore storage can meet government targets up to 175 Mt/yr, with cumulative storage up to 78 Gt under optimistic scenarios. Geological uncertainties reduce potential but do not eliminate key targets. The results support ambitious CCS deployment with adequate regulation and investment.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本でもCCSは重要な脱炭素手段であり、この研究は貯留層評価や拡大計画に適用可能な枠組みを提供する。英国の事例ではあるが、日本の洋上貯留ポテンシャル評価の参考になる。
In the global GX context
This paper presents a novel integrated approach for CCS scaleup feasibility, relevant for countries with offshore storage potential. It underscores that ambitious climate targets are attainable if techno-economic and geophysical constraints are jointly managed. The framework can inform global CCS deployment strategies.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a coupled modeling framework that integrates technical and physical constraints for CCS scaleup trajectories.
🏢実務担当者:Offers insights for CCS project developers on the interplay between growth rates and reservoir limits, aiding planning and risk assessment.
🏛政策担当者:Demonstrates that meeting mid-century CCS targets requires coordinated policy, investment, and infrastructure scale-up.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Geological carbon dioxide storage is central to meeting many national climate change commitments. Yet large-scale deployment remains poorly constrained by both techno-economic limits on how rapidly the technology can scale and physics-based constraints imposed by the behavior of the subsurface. We here develop a modelling framework to identify feasible CO2 storage scaleup trajectories constrained simultaneously by techno-economic growth and dynamic geophysical limits. We employ logistic and Gompertz models to represent policy-compliant deployment trajectories and simplified physics models to assess the resulting regional subsurface pressurisation. Applying the framework to the United Kingdom (UK), we find that offshore storage resources are sufficient to accommodate all government mid-century deployment rate targets up to 175 Mt yr-1. Cumulative storage of up to 78 Gt can be achieved under Gompertz growth trajectories. The more aggressive logistic trajectories are constrained by reservoir injectivity, limiting the achievable resource base to 69 Gt. Geological uncertainties further narrow feasible pathways, but does not eliminate many key scaleup targets. A tenfold reduction in reservoir permeability while maintaining mid-century injection rates decreases the achievable storage resource to ~40 Gt. We conclude that a large contribution from geological CO2 storage to rapid decarbonisation in the UK is attainable if supporting regulation, investment and industrial capacity expand in accordance with national climate ambitions.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- EarthArXiv https://eartharxiv.org/repository/object/13848/download/24293/first seen 2026-07-07 04:18:01
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