中国の持続可能な航空燃料（SAF）のライフサイクル炭素フットプリント評価と需要予測

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:SAF技術経路のLCA比較と長期需要予測の手法を、中国という大規模市場の文脈で参照できる。

🏢実務担当者:SAF調達や航空分野のScope 3・脱炭素戦略において、技術経路ごとのコストと削減効果のトレードオフ判断に活用できる。

🏛政策担当者:SAF産業展開の最適経路設計や原料供給・インセンティブ政策の検討材料となる。

To cope with climate change, achieve China’s dual-carbon goals and advance the aviation industry’s net-zero emissions roadmap for 2050, SAF is regarded as the core emission reduction pathway for China’s aviation sector. This study develops a forecasting framework for civil aircraft and projects China’s civil aircraft fleet size and SAF demand from 2026 to 2050. Meanwhile, adopting the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) method, it systematically evaluates the carbon footprint of four mainstream SAF synthesis technologies in China, namely, Hydrotreated Ester and Fatty Acids (HEFA), Fischer-Tropsch (FT), Alcohol to Jet (ATJ), and Power to Liquid (PTL). The research results indicate that HEFA technology exhibits a long-term low-cost advantage, PTL technology delivers the most significant carbon emission reduction, whereas ATJ technology shows no advantages in either cost or emission performance. In 2026, the HEFA synthetic pathway delivers the lowest carbon footprint at 43.57 gCO 2 eq/MJ, followed by ATJ at 53.48 gCO 2 eq/MJ and FT at 70.02 gCO 2 eq/MJ, with emission reduction rates of approximately 51%, 40% and 21%, respectively. The PTL technology exhibits the highest carbon footprint, equivalent to 2.33 times that of conventional jet fuel. From 2030 to 2045, HEFA technology represents the optimal technical route FT and ATJ synthetic technologies have considerably higher costs. Although PTL presents outstanding decarbonization potential, its production cost is substantially higher than that of other technologies, resulting in poor economic performance. By 2050, the carbon footprint of PTL will drop markedly by over 80% to 32.28 gCO 2 eq/MJ. The carbon footprints of FT and ATJ will decrease by roughly 49% and 40%, while HEFA, a relatively mature technology, will only see a carbon footprint reduction of around 21%. The differences in economic performance and carbon emissions among the four technology routes compared in this study essentially stem from the variations in their feedstock systems, forms of energy input, and conversion reactions. In the future, China’s sustainable aviation fuel development strategy should fully take into account feedstock supply capacity and the characteristics of each technological process, and establish an optimal industrial deployment pathway that balances environmental and economic benefits, thereby facilitating the achievement of the overall emission reduction targets of the civil aviation industry.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2026.1877433first seen 2026-09-16 04:42:15