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気温極端化が気候態度と緑の党投票に与える異質な影響

Heterogeneous impacts of temperature extremes on climate attitudes and Green voting (原題)

Jacopo Bassetto, Roman Hoffmann, Raya Muttarak, Jonas Peisker, Piero Stanig

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-10-26#気候科学Origin: EU
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2321153122
原典: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2321153122

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

欧州社会調査（2012–2022年、25カ国）を用い、気温極端化への曝露が気候変動への懸念・責任感・緑の党への投票を高めることを示す。温暖化期間中の超過気温1度ごとに懸念・責任感・緑票が各2.5〜4.0ポイント上昇する。効果は高学歴女性と低学歴男性で異なり、後者で最も強く収斂する。経済的に脆弱な地域や排出量が多い地域では効果が小さい。

English

Using European Social Survey data (2012–2022, 25 countries), the authors show that exposure to temperature extremes raised climate worry, felt responsibility, and Green voting. Each additional degree of excess warm-spell temperature increased these probabilities by 4.0, 2.5, and 2.8 percentage points. Effects are heterogeneous by gender and education, strongest among low-educated men, and weaker in disadvantaged or high-emission regions.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本では気候態度と投票行動の実証研究が乏しく、気候政策の世論形成やGX政策の社会的受容を考える基礎資料となる。地域格差の知見は日本の地域脱炭素政策の設計にも示唆を与える。

In the global GX context

Adds empirical evidence on how climate experience shapes political demand for climate action, relevant to the political economy of carbon pricing and green policy under TCFD/ISSB-era transition debates. The regional heterogeneity findings inform how disclosure and transition policy may land differently across communities.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:気候曝露と環境態度・投票行動の因果的異質性を測る実証デザインの参考になる。

🏛政策担当者:気候政策や炭素価格の社会的受容が地域・属性で異なる点を政策設計に反映すべき。

📄 Abstract（原文）

In the past decade, the public in Europe has become more concerned about climate change and expresses stronger proenvironmental policy preferences. Based on data from the European Social Survey (2012–2022, 25 countries), we show that the increased exposure to temperature extremes has contributed to the observed changes in climate change attitudes and electoral support for environmentalist policy platforms. For each additional degree of excess temperature experienced during warm spells measured over the previous 12 mo, we find that the probabilities of being worried about climate change, of feeling responsible for climate change, and of voting for Green parties and Green coalitions increase by 4.0 [CI95: 2.5, 5.5], 2.5 [CI95: 1.1, 3.9], and 2.8 [CI95: 0.9, 3.7] percentage points respectively. We also document significant heterogeneity across individuals, based on gender and education, particularly between highly educated women and low-educated men. While the latter group consistently exhibits the lowest proenvironmental attitudes and voting, it is this group that shows the strongest increases when exposed to temperature extremes, converging toward the levels of their more educated counterparts. Further regional heterogeneity analyses reveal that the effects of warm temperature extremes are smaller in less prosperous or economically disadvantaged regions, as well as in regions with greenhouse gas emission levels above the median. The findings suggest a nuanced interplay between individual factors and contextual influences in shaping climate attitudes of European citizens and their motivations or reservations toward greater climate action.

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