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Divergent Trends of Black and Brown Carbon Driven by Anthropogenic Emissions and Open Biomass Burning Across Asia

アジア全域における人為起源排出と開放型バイオマス燃焼が駆動するブラックカーボンとブラウンカーボンの発散傾向 (AI 翻訳)

Ying Zhang, Abudurexiati Abulimiti, Yanlin Zhang

📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-06-11#気候科学Origin: CN
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2026-2763
原典: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2763

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本研究はGEOS-Chemと機械学習を用いて、アジア域におけるブラックカーボン(BC)とブラウンカーボン(BrC)の排出トレンドと放射強制力への影響を定量化。東アジアでは政策によるBC抑制とバイオマス燃焼増加でBrC/BC比が上昇、南・東南アジアでは下降。排出削減がエアロゾル温暖化を均等に減らさず再分配することを示した。

English

Using GEOS-Chem and machine-learning attribution, this study quantifies responses of black carbon (BC) and brown carbon (BrC) to emission changes across Asia (2012-2019). East Asia shows an upward BrC/BC ratio due to policy-driven BC reduction and increased biomass burning, while South and Southeast Asia show declining ratios. These asymmetric changes affect radiative forcing, indicating that emission mitigation redistributes rather than reduces aerosol warming.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

アジア域のエアロゾル温暖化のメカニズムを解明。日本にとっては越境大気汚染や気候変動対策の観点で参考になるが、国内GX政策（SSBJ等）との直接的な接点は限られる。

In the global GX context

This study reveals that clean air policies in East Asia have increased the relative warming from brown carbon, highlighting that climate benefits from emission reductions depend on concurrent management of biomass burning. It informs global climate mitigation strategies beyond greenhouse gases.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Climate and aerosol researchers will find insights on the divergent trends and radiative forcing of BC and BrC across Asia.

🏛政策担当者:Policymakers should note that emission controls on fossil fuels may not proportionally reduce aerosol warming if biomass burning is not addressed.

📄 Abstract（原文）

Abstract. Black carbon (BC) and brown carbon (BrC) are the dominant light-absorbing carbonaceous aerosols (LACs) and contribute substantially to regional climate warming. Across Asia, heterogeneous changes in anthropogenic and open biomass burning (OBB) emissions driven by clean air policies and climate variability are reshaping LAC composition, yet how these changes alter the relative abundance and radiative roles of BC and BrC remains poorly understood. Here, using the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem combined with machine-learning attribution, we quantify the responses of BC and BrC to concurrent emission changes across East, South, and Southeast Asia during 2012–2019. We identify pronounced spatial heterogeneity in BrC/BC mass ratio trends. East Asia exhibits a significant upward trend, driven by policy-induced suppression of BC-rich anthropogenic sources alongside enhanced BrC-rich OBB from a seasonal shift in crop residue burning under open-fire regulations. In contrast, South and Southeast Asia show declining ratios attributable to residential energy transitions and wildfire variability, respectively. These asymmetric responses propagate into direct radiative forcing (DRF), with the DRFBrC/DRFBC ratio increasing from 34.1% to 41.3% in East Asia while declining elsewhere. Notably, in East and Southeast Asia, OBB amounts to up to half of anthropogenically driven radiative forcing changes. Our results demonstrate that emission mitigation can redistribute rather than proportionally reduce LAC warming, highlighting that future climate benefits will critically depend on the concurrent management of open biomass burning.

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