Scenario analyses of Japan's energy systems toward net-zero emissions by 2050 and the Japanese Government's 7th Strategic Energy Plan
日本における2050年ネットゼロ排出と政府第7次エネルギー基本計画に向けたエネルギーシステムのシナリオ分析 (AI 翻訳)
Keigo Akimoto, Fuminori Sano, Takashi Homma
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、日本の2050年ネットゼロ目標と第7次エネルギー基本計画を背景に、DNE21+とDEARSのグローバルエネルギーモデルを用いたシナリオ分析を実施。低成長シナリオでは2040年に73%削減達成に伴いGDPが13%、鉄鋼生産が41%減少する一方、リスクヘッジシナリオでは経済的損害を抑えつつ2040年に61%、2050年に79%の削減を達成可能と示した。エネルギー価格の国際比較や産業構造変化も考慮した分析結果から、政策への示唆を議論している。
English
This study conducts scenario analyses for Japan's net-zero 2050 target and the 7th Strategic Energy Plan using global energy models DNE21+ and DEARS. It finds that under a low growth scenario, achieving a 73% emissions reduction by 2040 would cause a 13% GDP loss and 41% steel production decline, while a risk-hedge scenario can achieve 61% reduction by 2040 and 79% by 2050 with less economic damage. Implications for energy and emission reduction policies are discussed.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
本論文は日本政府の第7次エネルギー基本計画の根拠となった分析を示しており、日本のGX政策、特にエネルギー転換と排出削減目標の実現可能性を評価する上で重要。企業の脱炭素戦略や投資判断にも示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper provides a detailed scenario analysis for Japan's energy transition, offering insights into the trade-offs between emissions reduction and economic impacts. It is relevant to global discussions on net-zero pathways, especially for countries with high industrial energy demand and reliance on imported fossil fuels.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Useful for energy systems modelers and policy analysts interested in Japan's decarbonization pathways and model-based scenario analysis.
🏢実務担当者:Corporate sustainability teams can assess the potential economic impacts of different decarbonization scenarios on sectors like steel and energy-intensive industries.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the importance of risk-hedge strategies in achieving deep emissions reductions while minimizing economic disruption, informing NDC revisions and energy planning.
📄 Abstract（原文）
In 2020, the Government of Japan declared its commitment to net-zero emissions by 2050, subsequently submitting as its nationally determined contribution (NDC) a 46% reduction in emissions by 2030 relative to 2013 levels. In February 2025, the government announced NDCs of 60% and 73% reductions by 2035 and 2040, respectively, which are in line with linear reductions to net-zero by 2050. At the same time, the government published its 7th Strategic Energy Plan and provided the outlook for 2040 energy supply and demand meeting the emissions reduction target. This study conducts scenario analyses using the global energy models, DNE21+ and DEARS, that served as the basis for the outlook as determined by the government. The scenario analyses focus on the price of energy in Japan relative to prices overseas due to the current status of Japan's CO2 emissions and changes in its industrial structure. The reductions in GDP and steel productions under a low growth scenario which assume conservative technology improvements are 13% and 41%, respectively, for achieving the 73% reduction in emissions. A risk-hedge scenario will achieve emissions reductions of 61% by 2040 and 79% by 2050 without such large economic damages. Scenario developments and their implications for energy and emissions reduction policies, i.e., the 7th strategic energy plan, are discussed.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- SSRN https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5243944first seen 2026-07-24 05:10:51
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